Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 29 06 2025

[Bitcoin]

**Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 29 06 2025** 

**1. Market Overview** 
As of June 29, 2025, the BTC/USDT futures market is showing signs of consolidation after a period of volatility. The spot price of Bitcoin stands at **$107,210.78**, while the futures price is slightly lower at **$107,162.30**, indicating a minor backwardation. Over the past 24 hours, the market has seen a marginal decline of **-0.08%**, with the daily high at **$107,577.75** and the daily low at **$107,084.15**. This narrow range suggests a lack of strong directional momentum, with traders awaiting a catalyst for the next move. 

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**2. Technical Analysis** 

**Moving Averages** 
- **SMA (50):** $107,187.18 
- **EMA (50):** $107,192.11 
The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) are nearly aligned, indicating a neutral trend. The price is hovering around these levels, suggesting a potential pivot point for future price action. 

**Relative Strength Index (RSI):** 50.19 
The RSI is at the midpoint, reflecting a balanced market with no clear overbought or oversold conditions. This further supports the idea of consolidation. 

**MACD:** 18.57 
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is positive but flat, indicating a lack of strong momentum in either direction. 

**Fibonacci Retracement** 
Using the recent swing high of $110,000 and swing low of $105,000, the key Fibonacci levels are: 
- 23.6%: $106,180 
- 38.2%: $106,900 
- 50%: $107,500 
The price is currently near the 50% retracement level, which could act as a support or resistance zone. 

**Bollinger Bands** 
The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, signaling reduced volatility. The price is trading near the middle band, reinforcing the neutral outlook. 

**Average True Range (ATR):** 1,200 
The ATR indicates moderate volatility, suggesting that a breakout could occur if the price moves decisively above or below the current range. 

**Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP):** $107,250 
The VWAP is slightly above the current price, indicating that buyers have been more active over the session. 

**Elliott Wave Analysis** 
The market appears to be in Wave 4 of a larger Elliott Wave structure, which is typically a corrective phase. A breakout above $107,600 could signal the start of Wave 5, while a break below $106,800 could indicate further downside. 

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**3. Trading Strategy** 

**Position:** Neutral to Slightly Bearish 
Given the lack of strong momentum and the consolidation pattern, a cautious approach is recommended. 

**Entry Point:** $107,100 (near the current price) 
**Stop Loss:** $106,800 (below the daily low and 38.2% Fibonacci level) 
**Take Profit:** $108,000 (above the daily high and 61.8% Fibonacci level) 
**Position Size:** 1-2% of portfolio capital to manage risk effectively. 
**Risk/Reward Ratio:** 1:3 (potential reward outweighs the risk) 

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**4. Fundamental Analysis** 

Recent market developments have been relatively quiet, with no major news impacting Bitcoin's price. Institutional interest remains steady, with continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and adoption by major corporations. However, macroeconomic factors such as interest rate decisions and regulatory developments could influence the market in the coming weeks. 

Price forecasts for Bitcoin remain bullish in the long term, with analysts predicting a potential target of $150,000 by the end of 2025, driven by increasing adoption and scarcity. However, short-term price action is likely to remain range-bound until a clear catalyst emerges. 

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**Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research before making investment decisions.