Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 26 06 2025

[Bitcoin]

**Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 26 June 2025** 

 **1. Market Overview** 
As of June 26, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) futures are trading at **$107,683.30**, slightly below the spot price of **$107,759.70**, indicating mild bearish sentiment in the derivatives market. The 24-hour change stands at **+1.44%**, with a daily high of **$108,135.30** and a low of **$106,001.00**, suggesting consolidation within a tight range. 

 **2. Technical Analysis** 

 **Key Indicators** 
- **SMA (50):** $106,319.34 (acting as dynamic support) 
- **EMA (50):** $106,209.48 (bullish crossover potential) 
- **RSI (14):** 57.73 (neutral, slight bullish bias) 
- **MACD:** 409.20 (bullish momentum, but histogram flattening) 

 **Additional Indicators** 
- **Fibonacci Retracement (from recent swing low to high):** 
  - Key levels: 23.6% ($106,850), 38.2% ($106,200), 50% ($105,700) 
  - Current price is above the 23.6% level, indicating bullish resilience. 
- **Bollinger Bands (20,2):** 
  - Price is near the middle band (~$107,000), suggesting range-bound movement. 
  - A breakout above $108,500 could signal a bullish expansion. 
- **ATR (14):** ~$2,100 (moderate volatility, potential for sharp moves) 
- **VWAP:** $107,200 (bullish if price holds above) 
- **Elliott Wave Analysis:** 
  - Possible Wave 3 continuation if $108,500 is breached. 
  - Alternatively, a corrective Wave 4 pullback to $105,000-$106,000 if resistance holds. 

 **3. Trading Strategy** 

 **Recommended Position:** **Buy on Breakout** 
- **Entry Point:** $108,200 (confirmation above resistance) 
- **Stop Loss:** $106,800 (below key Fibonacci and VWAP support) 
- **Take Profit Targets:** 
  - TP1: $110,000 (psychological resistance) 
  - TP2: $112,500 (previous high) 
  - TP3: $115,000 (extended bullish target) 
- **Position Size:** 1-2% of capital per trade 
- **Risk/Reward Ratio:** 1:3 (favorable) 

 **Alternative Scenario (Bearish Rejection):** 
- **Short Entry:** Below $106,800 (break of support) 
- **Stop Loss:** $107,500 
- **Take Profit:** $105,000 (50% Fibonacci level) 

 **4. Fundamental Analysis** 
While no major news events are impacting BTC today, institutional interest remains strong. Key factors to monitor: 
- **ETF Inflows:** Continued demand for Bitcoin ETFs could drive prices higher. 
- **Macroeconomic Conditions:** Fed rate cuts or inflation data may influence crypto markets. 
- **Adoption Trends:** Major corporations integrating BTC payments could boost sentiment. 

 **Conclusion** 
BTC/USDT futures are consolidating near key resistance. A breakout above $108,200 could trigger a bullish move, while failure to hold $106,800 may lead to a deeper correction. Traders should watch volume and institutional flows for confirmation. 

**Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making investment decisions. 

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