Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 21 06 2025

[Bitcoin]

**Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 21 June 2025** 

 **1. Market Overview** 
As of June 21, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) futures are trading at **$103,498.00**, slightly below the spot price of **$103,545.72**, indicating mild bearish sentiment in the derivatives market. The 24-hour change stands at **-0.68%**, with the daily high at **$106,524.65** and the low at **$102,345.00**, suggesting increased volatility. 

 **2. Technical Analysis** 

 **Key Indicators** 
- **SMA (50):** $104,469.10 (acting as resistance) 
- **EMA (50):** $104,356.47 (confirming bearish momentum) 
- **RSI (14):** 27.59 (oversold, potential for a short-term bounce) 
- **MACD:** -386.40 (bearish crossover, indicating downward pressure) 

 **Additional Indicators** 
- **Fibonacci Retracement (from $102,345 to $106,524.65):** 
  - **38.2%:** $104,120 (key resistance) 
  - **50%:** $104,434 (strong resistance near SMA 50) 
  - **61.8%:** $104,749 (if broken, bullish reversal possible) 
- **Bollinger Bands:** Price is near the lower band (~$102,500), suggesting potential support. 
- **ATR (14):** High volatility (ATR ~$2,800), indicating sharp price swings. 
- **VWAP:** $103,900 (current price below VWAP signals bearish bias). 
- **Elliott Wave Analysis:** Likely in **Wave C** of a corrective ABC pattern, targeting **$100,000** before a reversal. 

 **3. Trading Strategy** 

 **Short-Term Outlook (1-3 Days):** 
- **Position:** **Buy (Scalp Trade)** 
- **Entry:** $102,500 - $103,000 (near lower Bollinger Band & psychological support) 
- **Stop Loss:** $101,800 (below recent low) 
- **Take Profit:** $104,500 (near SMA 50 & 50% Fib) 
- **Position Size:** 1-2% of capital 
- **Risk/Reward Ratio:** 1:2 

 **Medium-Term Outlook (1-2 Weeks):** 
- **Position:** **Sell (Swing Trade)** if rejection at $104,500 
- **Entry:** $104,300 - $104,600 (near resistance) 
- **Stop Loss:** $105,200 (above EMA 50) 
- **Take Profit:** $100,000 (psychological & Elliott Wave target) 
- **Risk/Reward Ratio:** 1:3 

 **4. Fundamental Analysis** 
- **Institutional Activity:** Large BTC ETF inflows suggest long-term bullish sentiment, but short-term profit-taking is causing pullbacks. 
- **Regulatory News:** No major updates; market remains speculative. 
- **Macro Factors:** Fed rate cuts in 2025 could boost crypto liquidity, but current risk-off sentiment persists. 

 **Conclusion** 
Bitcoin is in a short-term downtrend but nearing oversold levels. A bounce to $104,500 is possible, but failure to break higher could lead to a deeper correction toward **$100,000**. Traders should monitor key resistance levels and adjust positions accordingly. 

**Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before trading.