Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 18 06 2025

[Bitcoin]

**Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 18 June 2025** 

 **1. Market Overview** 
As of June 18, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) futures are trading at **$105,139.40**, slightly below the spot price of **$105,192.83**, indicating mild bearish sentiment in the derivatives market. The 24-hour change stands at **-1.99%**, with the daily range fluctuating between **$107,711.06 (high)** and **$103,371.02 (low)**. The market appears to be consolidating after a recent pullback, with traders assessing key technical levels before the next directional move. 

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 **2. Technical Analysis** 

 **Moving Averages & Trend Analysis** 
- **SMA (50): $106,297.71** (bearish, price below SMA) 
- **EMA (50): $105,686.23** (price below EMA, reinforcing short-term weakness) 
The 50-day SMA and EMA both act as resistance, suggesting that bulls need to reclaim these levels to regain control. 

 **Relative Strength Index (RSI 14): 48.34** 
- The RSI is neutral, slightly leaning towards bearish momentum. A break below **45** could signal further downside, while a move above **55** may indicate a bullish reversal. 

 **MACD: -449.03 (Bearish Momentum)** 
- The MACD remains below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. However, the histogram shows a slight reduction in selling pressure, hinting at potential stabilization. 

 **Fibonacci Retracement (From Recent Swing High to Low)** 
- **Key Levels:** 
  - **23.6%:** $106,500 
  - **38.2%:** $108,200 
  - **50%:** $109,800 
  - **61.8%:** $111,500 
The price is currently below the 23.6% retracement level, suggesting weakness. A breakout above **$106,500** could trigger a short squeeze. 

 **Bollinger Bands (20,2)** 
- Price is hovering near the **lower band ($103,800)**, indicating potential oversold conditions. A rebound towards the **middle band ($105,900)** is possible if buyers step in. 

 **Average True Range (ATR 14): $3,200** 
- High volatility persists, meaning sharp moves are likely. Traders should adjust position sizes accordingly. 

 **Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): $105,400** 
- The price is slightly below VWAP, suggesting a slight bearish bias. A close above VWAP could shift sentiment. 

 **Elliott Wave Analysis** 
- The current structure suggests a corrective **Wave C** within a larger downtrend. If **$103,371** holds as support, a bullish reversal into **Wave 1** of an uptrend may follow. 

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 **3. Trading Strategy** 

 **Short-Term Trade Setup** 
- **Position:** **Buy on dip (conditional)** 
- **Entry:** **$103,500 - $104,000** (support zone) 
- **Stop Loss:** **$102,800** (below recent low) 
- **Take Profit 1:** **$105,700** (EMA 50) 
- **Take Profit 2:** **$106,500** (23.6% Fib) 
- **Position Size:** **1-2% of capital** 
- **Risk/Reward Ratio:** **1:2.5** 

 **Alternative Scenario (Breakdown Trade)** 
- **If $103,300 breaks**, consider a **short position** targeting **$101,000** (next support). 
- **Stop Loss:** **$104,500** 

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 **4. Fundamental Analysis** 

 **Recent Market Developments** 
- **Institutional Inflows:** Despite recent volatility, institutional interest remains strong, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing steady inflows. 
- **Regulatory Clarity:** Major economies continue refining crypto regulations, reducing uncertainty. 
- **Macroeconomic Factors:** The Fed's interest rate policy remains a key driver; any dovish signals could boost BTC. 

 **Price Forecasts** 
- **Bullish Case:** If BTC holds **$100K**, a rally towards **$120K** is possible in Q3 2025. 
- **Bearish Case:** A drop below **$100K** may trigger a deeper correction to **$90K**. 

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 **Conclusion** 
Bitcoin futures are in a consolidation phase, with key support at **$103,300** and resistance at **$106,500**. Traders should watch for a breakout above the 50 EMA or a breakdown below support for confirmation of the next move. 

**Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before trading.