US OPENING BELL 16-11-2022

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US OPENING BELL 16-11-2022

EUROPEAN STOCKS EDGE LOWER AMID GROWING GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS; UK’S CPI PRINTED ANOTHER RECORD HIGH, WHILE INVESTORS AWAIT FOR US RETAIL SALES DATA.

The major European shares are down this Thursday, with the Dax dropping 0.92%, the Cac40 0.47% and the Eurostoxx 0.52%. The Milan and Madrid stock exchanges were also negative, as was London, which contained its losses.

Yesterday evening, news of a possible missile launch by  in Poland triggered sales on all risk-on assets (with an accompanying rush to safe-haven assets). However, during the Asian session and in the following hours, various reassurances came in that the ians most likely launched the missiles that had hit Poland to counter an earlier n attack. It would therefore have been an accident. Such confirmations also came from NATO members.

This morning also came the CPI data in the UK, which confirmed a new all-time high. The annual figure came in at 11.1% against the expected 10.7%, and the monthly figure at 2% against the expected 1.7%. As explained yesterday, the core figure also beat analysts’ estimates, and these figures only keep the pressure on the BoE to continue with its restrictive monetary policy.

Elsewhere, the fall of the main cryptocurrencies continues, and after the retracement of the past few days, they are now within striking distance of the lows made after the FTX collapse. On the FX front, instead, the EURUSD and Cable exchange rates should be noted, which are retesting important long-term resistances, which could offer interesting cues for a return of interest against the US dollar.

As for the macroeconomic calendar, today, investors will focus on US retail sales, Canadian CPI, and scheduled speeches by BoE Governor Bailey and ECB President Lagarde.

EURUSD, M15

The EURUSD rose to our target yesterday above 1.0450 but failed to consolidate above it, which can be considered a negative bias for the time being. Afterwards, during the Poland missile strike news, it dropped heavily to the lower part of our most significant support area, between the 1.0310 and the 1.0360 marks. It started to rise again and is trading close to the 1.1450 mark. The most crucial intraday support area is the LVN around the 1.0392 mark, while the most critical intraday resistance remains at the 1.1450 mark. From a technical point of view, the most likely scenario is a continuation of the sideways trend between the resistance and the main support area (1.0310-1.0360). If prices break the support area downward, a drop to the W-1 VAH could occur.

Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern: 1.0392, 1.0360-1.0310, 1.0161.

Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern: 1.1450.

S&P500, M15

The S&P500 suffered the same EURUSD losses yesterday evening due to the news and then recovered. As for today, the most significant resistance area is the LVN + Current VAH around the 4008 mark, while the primary intraday support is the LVN around the 3942 mark. From a technical point of view, as long as prices remain below the resistance, a drop to retest yesterday’s lows is expected. On the flip side, an upward breakout of the resistance could lead prices to retest yesterday’s heights around the LVN at 4041. Should prices break the 4041 mark, the 4100 could be the next target.

Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern: 3960, 3942.

Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern: 4008, 4041, 4100.

Key:

POC= Point of Control

VAH= Value Area High

VAL= Value Area Low

LVN= Low Volume Node

HVN= High Volume Node

W-1= last week

W-2= two weeks ago

W-3= three weeks ago

D-1= yesterday

D-2= two days ago

D-3= three days ago

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