Price action today is hesitant

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Price action today is hesitant

<p>The price action I am characterizing as hesitant today.  Perhaps it is as a result of the data dump. </p><p>The retail sales were mixed but if you take into consideration that the sales don't reflect the prices, you can argue that data was weaker overall.</p><p>The regional indices from Philadelphia and New York diverged from expectations. The Philly Fed index was weaker than expectations, while the New York/Empire manufacturing index was better. However, both remain in negative territory indicative of contracting growth. Prices did show declines in both indices, but still remain higher than the 0.0 level indicating advancing prices for more firms vs declining prices. There is a slowing of the price increases, but prices are still advancing..</p><p>The claims data continues to show improvement with yet another decline.  The employment data is similar to housing data.  Recall that as rates rose, housing did not initially show declines in prices, just a slowing of the buyers hunger. That is starting to turn with recent price declines. </p><p>With regard to jobs, companies are slow in reacting to slower growth in their employment decisions.  Yes, there may be a slowing in some hires, but the data shows that layoffs are not increasing but decreasing.  The Fed has said they want slower growth and that will come at the cost of higher unemployment. That is not showing up in the weekly claims data. In fact it looks stronger vs weaker.  </p><p>IN the stock market, the major indices opened and moved lower but has seen a bounce back, but are now moving back down and are negative once again.  </p><p>In the US debt market, the 10 year yield reached a low of around 3.40%, and a high near 3.47%. The current yield is between those levels at 3.435%</p><p>The forex levels are up and down in most of the major pairs. </p><p>Looking at the </p><ul><li>EURUSD, the pair moved above its 200 hour moving average 1.0032 currently in the early North American session, but stalled against topside resistance near 1.0022 to 1.00328. The 50% of the range since last week's low comes in at 1.00303 between those levels. The price has since moved back below the 200 hour moving average and the parity level.  The price is higher on the day. The price did hold support near 0.99515 at the late Asian low.</li></ul><ul><li>USDJPY: The USDJPY is back to unchanged after a modest move higher could not sustain much momenttum. The pair is back retesting the 100 hour MA at 143.109. The 200 hour MA is at 142.956. IT would take a move back below both those MA  levels to increase the bearish bias. The 142.07 to 142.30 are the next downside targets on a break and the 38.2% of the move up from the August 23 low at 141.47. Those level all need to be broken to increase the bearish bias.  ON the topside, the BOJ stall the rally at the high from last week when they threatened intervention. That is helping to limit the upside. </li></ul><p>GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved above the 200 hour MA yesterday, but stalled just ahead of the higher 100 hour MA (blue line). The price moved back below the 200 hour MA into the close yesterday and remains below that MA today.  It would take a move above each to increase the short term bullish bias.  On the downside, the low today moved below an old swing area at 1.1495. There is other support at 1.1442 to 1.1449. That is a swing area ahead of the low for the year at 1.14042.  </p>

                This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

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