US August non-farm payrolls +315K vs +300K expected

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US August non-farm payrolls +315K vs +300K expected

<ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-non-farm-payrolls-528k-vs-250k-expected-20220805/" target="_blank">Prior </a>was +528K (revised to 526K)</li><li>Two month net revisions -108K</li></ul><ul><li>         Estimates ranged from +75K to +450K</li></ul><ul><li>         Unemployment rate 3.7% vs 3.5% expected</li></ul><ul><li>         Prior unemployment rate 3.5%</li></ul><ul><li>         Participation rate 62.4% vs 62.1% prior (was 63.4% pre-pandemic)</li></ul><ul><li>         U6 underemployment rate 7.0% vs 6.7% prior</li></ul><ul><li>         Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.4% expected (prior +0.5%)</li></ul><ul><li>         Average hourly <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/terms/e/earnings/" target="_blank" id="cd852b85-3a1d-45ed-8691-cef64b568bed_2" class="terms__main-term">earnings</a> 5.2% y/y vs +5.3% expected (prior 5.2%)</li></ul><ul><li>         Average weekly hours   34.5 vs 34.6 expected</li></ul><ul><li>         Change in private payrolls 308K vs +300K expected</li></ul><ul><li>         Change in manufacturing payrolls +22K vs +20K expected</li><li>Household survey +440K vs +179K prior</li></ul><p>The implied odds of a 75 bps hike at the Sept 21 FOMC meeting were at 75% ahead of the data. USD/JPY was trading at 140.47 ahead of the numbers, which is the highest since 1998. Earlier today Japan chief cabinet secretary Matsuno <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/japan-chief-cabinet-secretary-matsuno-tries-to-talk-up-the-yen-20220902/" target="_blank">said </a>they are watching FX moves with a sense of urgency, which is a hint that intervention is on the table.</p><p>The US dollar moved down moderately after the data with the market focused on the dip on wage growth and rise in unemployment. I'm a bit surprised by the reaction because this is generally good news for the economy and if I was an FOMC member, this would make me feel a bit more comfortable about hiking by 75 bps, though the implied probability is still at 75.0%.</p><p>US 2-year yuields are down 2-3 bps on the data and stock futures have moved up.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Source: US August non-farm payrolls +315K vs +300K expected

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