The Week Ahead 📈 14th – 18th FEB

PocketOption · Feb 12, 2022, 04:20 am

The Week Ahead 📈 14th - 18th FEB

Hello, welcome to the Key To Markets preview of the Week Ahead.

If you have any questions about this information, please contact your KTM Account Manager who will be happy to assist.

Currency Pair Performance

5-day performance as of February 10, 2022. 18:00 GMT

Source: finviz.com

10 Big Stories Last Week

Chart of the Week

Source: Bianco Research

Of course this report is not a place to discuss politics. But politics can affect markets. US President Joe Biden's approval ratings have been tanking – the honeymoon is over! With US midterm elections coming in November – The White House will need to fix these ratings before then. One of the biggest things Biden will want to do is bring down inflation – and especially bring down the price of oil. It’s not clear this can be achieved – but there is a lot of political pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike rates and bring down inflation because of the above chart. A new nuclear deal with Iran might help bring oil prices lower.

Economic Calendar Highlights

Source: FX Street

5 Things to Watch This Week

1) Fed minutes

It was the January meeting (when these minutes were recorded) that the Fed laid the groundwork for a March rate hike. Investors will now be parsing them for any sign that a 50-basis point move could be on the cards.

2) US retail sales

Inflation and unemployment data all support the Fed pressing on with its planned March rate hike but retail sales could be the final piece of the puzzle. If higher prices sufficiently dampen consumption, the Fed might have to think twice.

3) Eurozone GDP

Eurozone Q4 GDP data will be one to watch given the sharp gains in the euro after the last ECB meeting. Economists expect Omicron to have hurt activity in December but it seems unlikely to be enough to end the pressure on the ECB to bring forward rate hike plans.

4) UK CPI

A third Bank of England rate hike in a row could rest on the UK January inflation data. UK Q4 GDP held steady at 1.1% q/q – leaving plenty of space for another 25 bp move.

5) Japan inflation

If Japanese inflation moves over 1%, this would be a big step-up for the nation that typically suffers from lowflation/deflation and could increase volatility in the Japanese yen if a BOJ rate hike comes into view.

Technical Analysis

Here you can find analysis of the major asset classes including the major forex pairs, gold, oil, and the S&P 500.

EUR/USD (H4 Candlestick Chart)

EUR/USD dipped to 1.138 support before railing to a new 2022 high intraday. The bullish engulfing candlestick on the daily and 4hr chart is bullish.

GBP/USD (H4 Candlestick Chart)

GBP/USD remains well-supported after rebounding from a dip off 1.35 to jump towards 1.365 resistance.

USD/JPY (H4 Candlestick Chart)

USD/JPY successfully tested the multi-years highs at 116.3 and dropped back to where 115.6 will need to hold for the chance of a near term breakout.

AUD/USD (H4 Candlestick Chart)

AUD/USD reversed sharply just under 0.725 and needs to sustain above 0.72 to maintain the short term bullish trend.

USD/CAD (H4 Candlestick Chart)

USD/CAD remains caught in a sideways trend but a false breakdown under range support at 1.265 is reason to think the breakout could eventually be to the upside, beyond 1.28.

Gold (H4 Candlestick Chart)

XAU/USD has rallied strongly back to range resistance having successfully held the support near 1780. A clear breakout of 1850 is needed for an uptrend to take hold.

Brent Oil (H4 Candlestick Chart)

BRENT has closed over 90, breaking out of its tight short term range, possibly setting up a move to 93 then 95.

US 500 (D1 Candlestick Chart)

US500 cannot get past 4600, dropping away from the level for a second time since the late January sell-off. Support is at 4500 and the 20 DMA then 4440.

Thank you very much for reading - and have a great week trading!

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