Forex Fundamental Analysis – The U.S. money market curve

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Forex Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. money market curve

GBPUSD – Flat

GBPUSD trading plan:

The U.S. money market curve is now fully pricing in five quarter-point hikes this year, and a 35% chance of a sixth. This could inject new life into the dollar, which had started to drift from last week’s 19-month high against a basket of currencies. Funds had already started to cut their bullish dollar bets. Last week’s overall net long position worth $10.3 billion is the smallest since September, and about half the $20 billion or so it had been from mid-December through mid-January. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield retreated, pausing after a jump seen on Friday on the back of stronger-than-expected U.S. data. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was also down.

Investment idea: range 1.3488 -1.3570.

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Source: Forex Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. money market curve

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