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Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 07 07 2025

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**Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - July 7, 2025** 

 **1. Market Overview** 

As of July 7, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show bullish momentum in the futures market, trading at **$109,391.60** (BTC/USDT), slightly below the spot price of **$109,440.09**. The market has seen a **+1.33%** increase over the past 24 hours, with a daily high of **$109,700.00** and a low of **$107,800.01**. This indicates consolidation near all-time highs, with traders assessing key technical levels before the next potential breakout or correction. 

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 **2. Technical Analysis** 

 **Moving Averages (Trend Analysis)** 
- **SMA (50):** $108,381.38 
- **EMA (50):** $108,576.43 

The price remains above both the **50-SMA** and **50-EMA**, confirming a bullish trend. The EMA, being more responsive to recent price action, suggests stronger short-term bullish momentum. A sustained hold above these levels signals continuation potential. 

 **Relative Strength Index (RSI 14): 60.64** 
The RSI is in the **upper-neutral zone**, approaching overbought territory (70+). While not yet extreme, traders should watch for potential exhaustion if RSI climbs above **65-70**. 

 **MACD: 288.52 (Bullish Momentum)** 
The **MACD histogram** shows strong bullish momentum, but traders should monitor for potential bearish divergence if price rises while MACD flattens. 

 **Fibonacci Retracement Levels (From Recent Swing Low to High)** 
- **23.6%:** $107,200 
- **38.2%:** $105,900 
- **50%:** $104,800 
- **61.8%:** $103,700 

The current price sits well above the 23.6% retracement level, reinforcing bullish sentiment. A drop below **$107,200** could signal a deeper correction towards **$105,900**. 

 **Bollinger Bands (20, 2)** 
- **Upper Band:** $110,500 
- **Middle Band (SMA 20):** $108,900 
- **Lower Band:** $107,300 

Price is hovering near the **upper band**, indicating potential overextension. A pullback to the middle band (~$108,900) would offer a healthy retest before continuation. 

 **Average True Range (ATR 14): ~$2,500** 
High volatility persists. A break above **$110K** could trigger fast moves, while a drop below **$107K** may accelerate selling. 

 **Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): $108,200** 
Price trading above VWAP supports bullish bias. A dip below VWAP would suggest weakening momentum. 

 **Elliott Wave Analysis** 
BTC appears to be in **Wave 3** of a larger bullish impulse. Key targets: 
- **Wave 3 Extension:** $112,000 - $115,000 
- **Wave 4 Pullback:** $105,000 - $107,000 

Traders should watch for a potential Wave 4 correction if resistance near **$110K** holds. 

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 **3. Trading Strategy** 

 **Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation** 
- **Entry:** Break & close above **$109,700** 
- **Stop Loss:** Below **$107,800** (~1.7% risk) 
- **Take Profit:** $112,000 (first target), $115,000 (second target) 
- **Position Size:** 1-2% per trade 
- **Risk/Reward:** ~1:3 

 **Scenario 2: Bearish Correction** 
- **Entry:** Drop below **$107,800** 
- **Stop Loss:** Above **$109,700** (~1.7% risk) 
- **Take Profit:** $105,900 (38.2% Fib), $104,800 (50% Fib) 
- **Position Size:** 1% per trade 
- **Risk/Reward:** ~1:2 

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 **4. Fundamental Analysis** 

 **Recent Market Developments** 
- **Institutional Adoption:** Major institutions continue allocating to BTC ETFs and futures. 
- **Regulatory Clarity:** Clearer crypto regulations in key markets support long-term bullish sentiment. 
- **Macroeconomic Factors:** Potential Fed rate cuts in late 2025 may boost liquidity inflows into crypto. 

 **Price Forecast** 
Analysts remain cautiously bullish, with mid-term targets around **$115K-$120K** if key resistance breaks. A failure to hold **$105K** may trigger a deeper correction. 

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 **Conclusion** 
BTC/USDT remains in a bullish trend, but near-term volatility calls for caution. Traders should monitor **$109,700** resistance and **$107,800** support for breakout or reversal signals. 

*Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research before making investment decisions.* 🚀