Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 31 05 2025

[Bitcoin]

**Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 31 May 2025** 

 **1. Market Overview** 
As of **31 May 2025**, Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) futures are trading at **$103,701.00**, slightly below the spot price of **$103,745.27**, indicating mild bearish sentiment in the derivatives market. The price has declined by **-1.82%** in the last 24 hours, with a daily high of **$106,313.12** and a low of **$103,550.00**, suggesting consolidation near the lower range. 

 **2. Technical Analysis** 

 **Key Indicators** 
- **SMA (50):** **$106,289.34** (Price below SMA indicates bearish trend) 
- **EMA (50):** **$105,976.32** (Faster EMA confirms short-term weakness) 
- **RSI (14):** **26.87** (Oversold, potential for a short-term bounce) 
- **MACD:** **-630.31** (Bearish momentum persists) 

 **Additional Indicators** 
- **Fibonacci Retracement (from recent swing high $110,000 to low $103,550):** 
  - **38.2%:** $105,500 (immediate resistance) 
  - **50%:** $106,775 (strong resistance if recovery occurs) 
  - **61.8%:** $108,050 (key bullish confirmation level) 
- **Bollinger Bands:** Price near the lower band (~$103,500), indicating potential oversold conditions. 
- **ATR (14):** **$2,400** (High volatility, expect sharp moves) 
- **VWAP:** **$104,200** (Price below VWAP suggests bearish intraday bias) 
- **Elliott Wave Analysis:** 
  - Possible **Wave C** of a corrective ABC pattern underway. 
  - If $103,500 holds, a retracement to $106,000-$107,000 is likely. 
  - Breakdown below $103,000 could signal further downside to $100,000. 

 **3. Trading Strategy** 

 **Short-Term Trade Setup** 
- **Position:** **Buy (for a bounce)** 
- **Entry Zone:** **$103,500-$103,800** 
- **Stop Loss:** **$102,900** (below recent low) 
- **Take Profit Targets:** 
  - **TP1:** $105,500 (Fibonacci 38.2%) 
  - **TP2:** $106,800 (50% retracement) 
  - **TP3:** $108,000 (61.8% retracement) 
- **Position Size:** **1-2% of capital** 
- **Risk/Reward Ratio:** **1:2.5+** 

 **Alternative Scenario (Breakdown Trade)** 
- If **$103,000 breaks**, consider a **short position** targeting **$101,000-$100,000**. 
- **Stop Loss:** **$104,200** (above VWAP) 

 **4. Fundamental Analysis** 

 **Recent Market Developments** 
- **Institutional Activity:** Large BTC ETF inflows observed in early May, but recent outflows suggest profit-taking. 
- **Regulatory News:** No major updates, but market remains cautious ahead of potential SEC rulings. 
- **Macro Factors:** US inflation data and Fed rate decisions could impact BTC's correlation with risk assets. 

 **Price Forecast** 
- **Bullish Case:** If BTC holds $103,000, a rebound to $110,000 is possible. 
- **Bearish Case:** A drop below $100,000 could trigger further liquidation towards $95,000. 

 **Conclusion** 
Bitcoin is in a **short-term downtrend** but shows **oversold signals** (RSI, Bollinger Bands). A bounce towards $106,000 is likely if $103,500 holds. However, a breakdown below $103,000 could extend losses. 

**Trade cautiously with tight risk management.** 

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**Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research before making investment decisions.