Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 29 05 2025

[Bitcoin]

**Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 29 May 2025** 

 **1. Market Overview** 
As of **29 May 2025**, Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) futures are trading at **$107,960.70**, slightly below the spot price of **$108,008.71**, indicating mild bearish sentiment in the derivatives market. The **24-hour change** stands at **-0.57%**, with the daily range fluctuating between **$109,130.44 (high)** and **$106,769.43 (low)**. 

Key Observations: 
- Futures are trading at a slight discount to spot, suggesting short-term bearish pressure. 
- The market has failed to sustain above the psychological **$110K** level. 
- Volatility remains moderate, with a **$2,361** daily range. 

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 **2. Technical Analysis** 

 **Moving Averages & Momentum Indicators** 
- **SMA (50): $108,783.37** - The price is below the 50-day SMA, signaling short-term bearishness. 
- **EMA (50): $108,496.47** - The EMA confirms the downtrend as the price remains below it. 
- **RSI (14): 41.24** - Neutral but leaning bearish; no extreme oversold conditions yet. 
- **MACD: -328.73** - The histogram is negative, reinforcing bearish momentum. 

 **Additional Indicators** 
- **Fibonacci Retracement (from $100K to $112K):** 
  - Key levels: **38.2% ($107,200)**, **50% ($106,000)**, **61.8% ($104,800)**. 
  - Current price is near the **38.2%** support; a break below could target **$106K**. 
- **Bollinger Bands (20,2):** 
  - Price is near the **lower band ($106,800)**, suggesting potential oversold conditions. 
  - A bounce from here could retest the **middle band ($108,500)**. 
- **ATR (14): $2,100** - High volatility persists, indicating potential for sharp moves. 
- **VWAP: $107,850** - The price is below VWAP, reinforcing bearish intraday bias. 
- **Elliott Wave Analysis:** 
  - Possible **Wave 4 correction** underway after a strong Wave 3 rally. 
  - If **$106K** holds, a Wave 5 rally could target **$115K+**. 

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 **3. Trading Strategy** 

 **Short-Term (Intraday to 3 Days)** 
- **Position:** **Sell on rallies** (if resistance holds) or **buy on dips** (if support holds). 
- **Entry:** 
  - **Short Entry:** $108,500 (near EMA resistance) 
  - **Long Entry:** $106,500 (Fibonacci & Bollinger support) 
- **Stop Loss:** 
  - **For Shorts:** $109,200 (above daily high) 
  - **For Longs:** $105,800 (below key support) 
- **Take Profit:** 
  - **Short Target:** $106,000 (50% Fib) 
  - **Long Target:** $109,500 (SMA & VWAP resistance) 
- **Position Size:** **1-2% risk per trade** 
- **Risk/Reward Ratio:** **1:2 or better** 

 **Medium-Term (1-2 Weeks)** 
- If **$106K holds**, expect a rally towards **$112K**. 
- A **break below $105K** could trigger a deeper correction to **$100K**. 

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 **4. Fundamental Analysis** 

 **Recent Market Developments** 
- **Institutional Activity:** No major inflows/outflows reported. 
- **Regulatory News:** No significant updates impacting BTC. 
- **Macro Factors:** Traders await Fed rate decisions; any dovish signals could boost BTC. 

 **Price Forecasts** 
- **Bullish Scenario:** Break above **$110K** could target **$120K**. 
- **Bearish Scenario:** Failure at **$106K** may lead to **$100K retest**. 

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 **Conclusion** 
Bitcoin futures are in a **short-term downtrend**, but key support at **$106K** could trigger a reversal. Traders should watch **EMA, VWAP, and Fib levels** for confirmation. A **break below $105K** would invalidate the bullish structure. 

**Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before trading. 

**Happy Trading!** 🚀