US core PCE for April 0.2% vs 0.3% estimate

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US core PCE for April 0.2% vs 0.3% estimate

• Prior month 0.3%
• Core PCE MoM 0.2% vs 0.3% estimate.
• Core PCE YoY 2.8% % vs 2.8% estimate. Last month 2.8%.
• PCE MoM 0.3% % vs 0.3% estimate. Last month 0.3%.
• PCE YoY 2.7 % vs 2.7% estimate. Last month 2.7%
• Unrounded core PCE 0.249% so it was right between 0.2% and 0.3%. The prior month was at 0.317% (rounded to 0.3%)
• PCE services prices excluding energy and housing 0.3% versus 0.4% previously

Looking at personal income and personal consumption for April:

• Personal income MoM prior month 0.5%
• Personal consumption MoM prior month 0.5% revised to 0.4%
• Personal income for April 0.3% % versus 0.3% expected
• Personal consumption for April -0.1% % vs 0.3% expected

The initial reaction with the inflation a little lower (but in the middle between 0.2% and 0.3%) and consumption also lower at -0.1% signaling slower growth is US yield is moving lower/US stocks moving higher:

• 2-year yield 4.920%, -0.9 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.556%, -1.6 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.530%, -2.4% basis points
• 30-year yield 4.661%, -2.3%

in the premarket for US stocks:

• S&P up 15.02 point
• Dow Industrial Average average up 104 points
• NASDAQ index of 34.34 points

The USD is lower with the decline in yields. 

On the not so bullish side, Nick Timiraos comments on X, that the 6-month annualized rate was 3.18%, the highest since July, but the 12-month was a 3-year low.

Looking at the 3 month measure came in at 3.46%, which is lower vs the last 2 months, but higher than any point in 2H of 2023. 

The question TBD is what is ahead.

This follows the CPI data which was tamer, but it is only 1 report. Fed officials have said that it will take more than 1. So the story remains the same but it is 1 and not 0. 

                This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Source: US core PCE for April 0.2% vs 0.3% estimate

forexlive.com