ECB's Lane: If there is a recession underway, it is at the mild end

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ECB's Lane: If there is a recession underway, it is at the mild end

<p>ECBs Lane:</p><ul><li>If there is a recession underway, it is at the "mild end"</li><li>More resilence than many might expect in the European economy</li><li>Labor market momentum a sign that Europe is not seen facing a big contraction</li><li>Expect a fairly big drop in <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/" target="_blank" id="ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa_1" class="terms__main-term">inflation</a> this year</li><li>If easing of energy prices persist, it should feed into less pressure on food and core inflation</li><li>Seen a sizeable decline in real wages</li><li>Ongoing wage negotiations will begin to make up for that, could put upward pressure on prices in coming years.</li><li>Policy decisions will be data dependent, but any type of simulation shows rates need to be above 2%</li></ul><p>The US and Canada jobs reports this morning help to paint the same employment picture in each country. How can you have a recession with Unemployment rates near historic low levels. </p><p>The confusing part of it is at the same time that there are the headlines of layoffs especially at the big cap, the overall picture is still strong.  </p>

                This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Source: ECB's Lane: If there is a recession underway, it is at the mild end

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