US CPI report coming up on Tuesday, 13 September 2022 - preview

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US CPI report coming up on Tuesday, 13 September 2022 - preview

<p>The August inflation report from the US is due Tuesday:</p><ul><li>
This
snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar">access
it here</a>.</li><li>
The
times in the left-most column are GMT. </li><li>
The
numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous
month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column
next to that, where is a number, is the consensus median expected.</li></ul><p>



---</p><p>Via Scotia, in summary:</p><ul><li>Tuesday's CPI figures ...  may further inform whether the FOMC hikes by 75bps or 50bps on September 21st but there is a high bar to whether they matter.</li><li>I say high bar because when given the opportunity to lean against market pricing for a 75bps move, Chair Powell took a pass in his appearance at a Cato Institute event. Several of his FOMC colleagues appeared to behave similarly. </li><li>It would probably take a big downside miss to core CPI to knock the Fed off course and even that is not assured.</li><li>It's the annualized month-over-month core CPI reading that matters more than the year-over-year rate and so an estimated 6.3% m/m SAAR reading in core CPI would likely motivate the FOMC to believe that underlying inflation continues to run hot with broad pressures.</li><li>One input to the call is the Cleveland Fed's CPI 'nowcasts.' ...  They have been a useful but not infallible source of input into the estimates. Still, the signal on core inflation points to a hot reading that should have markets looking through headline influences stemming from energy prices.</li></ul>

                This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at forexlive.com.

Source: US CPI report coming up on Tuesday, 13 September 2022 - preview

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