Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 01 07 2025

[Bitcoin]

**Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 01 July 2025** 

 **1. Market Overview** 
As of **01 July 2025**, Bitcoin futures (BTC/USDT) are trading at **$106,791.80**, slightly below the spot price of **$106,833.77**, indicating mild bearish sentiment in the derivatives market. The **24-hour change** stands at **-0.69%**, with the daily high at **$108,299.99** and the low at **$106,733.33**. 

Key Observations: 
- Futures are trading at a slight discount (backwardation), suggesting short-term bearish pressure. 
- The market failed to sustain above **$108K**, leading to a pullback. 

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 **2. Technical Analysis** 

 **Moving Averages** 
- **SMA (50): $107,647.32** 
- **EMA (50): $107,460.77** 
The price is trading below both the **50-SMA** and **50-EMA**, reinforcing a short-term downtrend. A break above these levels could signal a bullish reversal. 

 **Relative Strength Index (RSI 14): 35.09** 
- The RSI is in **neutral-bearish** territory, approaching oversold conditions (below 30). A bounce from this level could indicate a short-term recovery. 

 **MACD: -192.94** 
- The **MACD** remains in negative territory, with the histogram showing bearish momentum. A bullish crossover would be needed for a trend reversal. 

 **Fibonacci Retracement (From Recent Swing High to Low)** 
- **Key Levels:** 
  - **23.6%:** $107,200 
  - **38.2%:** $107,800 
  - **50%:** $108,300 
  - **61.8%:** $108,800 
- Current price is below the **23.6%** level, suggesting further downside if support at **$106,700** fails. 

 **Bollinger Bands (20,2)** 
- Price is near the **lower band**, indicating potential oversold conditions. A bounce toward the middle band ($107,500) is possible. 

 **Average True Range (ATR 14): ~$1,200** 
- Volatility remains moderate, suggesting potential for **$1,000-$1,500** moves in either direction. 

 **Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)** 
- Current VWAP is **$107,100**, acting as resistance. A break above could signal bullish momentum. 

 **Elliott Wave Analysis** 
- The market appears to be in a **corrective wave (Wave 4 or Wave B)** after a prior uptrend. 
- If the correction holds above **$106,000**, a bullish **Wave 5 or Wave C** could follow. 

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 **3. Trading Strategy** 

 **Short-Term Bearish Scenario (If Resistance Holds)** 
- **Position:** **Sell** (Short) 
- **Entry:** $106,800-$107,000 
- **Stop Loss:** $107,500 (above SMA 50) 
- **Take Profit:** $105,500 (first target), $104,000 (second target) 
- **Risk/Reward Ratio:** **1:2** 

 **Bullish Reversal Scenario (If Support Holds & RSI Bounces)** 
- **Position:** **Buy** (Long) 
- **Entry:** $106,500-$106,700 (with confirmation) 
- **Stop Loss:** $105,900 
- **Take Profit:** $108,000 (first target), $109,500 (second target) 
- **Risk/Reward Ratio:** **1:3** 

 **Position Sizing** 
- Risk **1-2%** of capital per trade. 
- Leverage: **3x-5x** (moderate due to volatility). 

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 **4. Fundamental Analysis** 

 **Recent Market Developments** 
- **Institutional Interest:** Major asset managers continue to accumulate Bitcoin, with ETF inflows remaining steady. 
- **Regulatory News:** No major regulatory updates as of now, but market sentiment remains cautious. 
- **Macro Factors:** Fed rate decisions and inflation data could influence BTC's next major move. 

 **Price Forecast** 
- **Short-Term (1-2 weeks):** Range-bound between **$105K-$108K** unless a breakout occurs. 
- **Mid-Term (1-3 months):** Bullish if BTC holds above **$100K**; bearish if it breaks below. 

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 **Conclusion** 
Bitcoin futures are in a **short-term downtrend** but could see a reversal if key support holds. Traders should watch **$106,700** for potential long entries or **$107,500** for short opportunities. 

**Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before trading. 

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