US OPENING BELL 30-11-2022

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US OPENING BELL 30-11-2022

EUROPEAN STOCKS EDGE HIGHER THANKS TO THE POSITIVE EUROPEAN CPI DATA AND DESPITE NEGATIVE DATA FROM CHINA. INVESTORS’ FOCUS SHIFTS NOW TO ADP AND TO POWELL’S SPEECH THIS AFTERNOON.

Major European equities edge higher at mid-session, with the Dax index gaining 0.37%, the Cac40 0.70% and the Eurostoxx 0.71%. Overseas, US futures forecast a slightly bullish opening for the three major indices.

This morning investors started the day with negative data from China, with the manufacturing PMI coming in at 48 against expectations of 49. In contrast, the non-manufacturing PMI came in at 46.7 against expectations of 48. However, this data was not enough to shake traders’ sentiment, especially as protests against the various lockdowns continue to indicate that the country’s authorities are considering changing the anti-covid regulations, ensuring greater movement possibilities. This pleases investors and markets, considering China is the world’s second-largest economy.

The long-awaited European inflation data also arrived in the morning. Although inflation is still at high levels in some countries (such as Italy), the data seems slightly more reassuring on a continental level. The monthly figure was -0.1% against the expected 0.2%, and the annual figure was 10% against the expected 10.4%. Inflation is thus slowing down for the first time since last June, and as the data show, the reasons for this drop are to be found in the falling prices of energy and services, as those of food, alcohol and tobacco are still rising.

From now on, the focus shifts to the ADP data to be published this afternoon in the States (which is often a good indicator for NFP, which will be posted on Friday), and Powell’s speech, in what will be his last speech before the next meeting in December. The Fed chairman will likely reiterate the central bank’s determination to fight inflation.

As for the macroeconomic calendar, the other data to be released are the new JOLTS jobs and US crude oil stocks.

EURUSD, M15

The EURUSD is trading between the most significant intraday support area and the most crucial intraday resistance area. The first is between the W-2 POC and the W-2 VAL, while the latter is the LVN around the 1.0387 mark. From a technical point of view, as long as prices remain above the support, the most likely scenario is a continuation of the uptrend toward the resistance. On the flip side, a breakout of the support could lead prices to the W-1 VAL.

Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern: 1.0336-1.0325, 1.0275.

Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern: 1.0387, 1.0404.

S&P500, M30

The S&P found buyers around the most significant intraday support area, the W-2 VAL, and is now trying to overcome the most critical intraday resistance area after being rejected already once. From a technical point of view, if prices can overcome the resistance and consolidate above it, the most likely scenario is a continuation of the uptrend to target the W-2 VAH. On the other hand, if the index posts a bearish pattern around the resistance, prices could pull back to retest the W-2 VAL.

Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern: 3943, 3911.

Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern: 3964, 3999. 4027.

Key:

POC= Point of Control

VAH= Value Area High

VAL= Value Area Low

LVN= Low Volume Node

HVN= High Volume Node

W-1= last week

W-2= two weeks ago

W-3= three weeks ago

D-1= yesterday

D-2= two days ago

D-3= three days ago

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