Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 05 07 2025

[Bitcoin]

**Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 05/07/2025** 

 **1. Market Overview** 
As of **05/07/2025**, Bitcoin (BTC) futures are trading at **$108,071.80**, slightly below the spot price of **$108,118.69**, indicating mild bearish sentiment in the derivatives market. The **24-hour change** stands at **-0.83%**, with the daily range between **$109,144.33 (high)** and **$107,245.00 (low)**. 

Key Observations: 
- **Futures premium (basis)** is negative, suggesting short-term caution. 
- The market is consolidating after recent volatility. 

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 **2. Technical Analysis** 

 **Moving Averages** 
- **SMA (50): $108,859.64** (resistance) 
- **EMA (50): $108,408.74** (near-term resistance) 
- **SMA (200): $105,200.00** (long-term support) 

**Analysis:** 
- Price is below the 50-day SMA and EMA, indicating short-term bearish pressure. 
- A break above **$108,860** could signal a bullish reversal. 

 **Relative Strength Index (RSI 14): 61.36** 
- **Neutral-bullish** (not yet overbought). 
- If RSI holds above **60**, upward momentum may continue. 

 **MACD: -189.98** 
- **Bearish crossover** (MACD below signal line). 
- Weak momentum, but a reversal could form if MACD turns upward. 

 **Additional Indicators** 

 **Fibonacci Retracement (Recent Swing High: $110,000 / Low: $106,000)** 
- **Key Levels:** 
  - **23.6%:** $107,600 (support) 
  - **38.2%:** $108,480 (resistance) 
  - **50%:** $108,000 (pivot) 
- **Current price near 50% retracement**, suggesting indecision. 

 **Bollinger Bands (20,2)** 
- **Price near the middle band ($108,200).** 
- A move toward the **upper band ($109,500)** would indicate bullish momentum. 

 **Average True Range (ATR 14): ~$2,500** 
- **High volatility** persists; expect sharp moves. 

 **Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): $107,800** 
- **Bullish if price holds above VWAP.** 

 **Elliott Wave Analysis** 
- **Possible Wave 4 correction** underway. 
- If **$107,000 holds**, Wave 5 upside could target **$112,000+**. 

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 **3. Trading Strategy** 

 **Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout** 
- **Entry:** Above **$108,860** (50 SMA) 
- **Stop Loss:** Below **$107,200** (daily low) 
- **Take Profit:** **$111,000** (1.5% risk/reward) 
- **Position Size:** 1-2% of capital 

 **Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation** 
- **Entry:** Breakdown below **$107,000** 
- **Stop Loss:** Above **$108,200** 
- **Take Profit:** **$105,000** (1:2 risk/reward) 
- **Position Size:** 1-2% of capital 

 **Risk Management** 
- **Max risk per trade: 1-2%** 
- **Leverage:** ≤ 5x (due to high volatility) 

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 **4. Fundamental Analysis** 

 **Recent Market Developments** 
- **No major news** impacting BTC price as of **05/07/2025**. 
- **Institutional inflows** remain steady, but derivatives market shows caution. 

 **Price Forecast** 
- **Short-term:** Consolidation between **$107,000 - $109,500**. 
- **Mid-term:** Breakout potential toward **$112,000** if bullish momentum resumes. 

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 **Final Thoughts** 
BTC/USDT futures are in a **neutral-to-bearish** phase, awaiting a decisive breakout. Traders should monitor **$107,000 support** and **$108,860 resistance** for directional cues. 

**Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before trading. 

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