US OPENING BELL 25-11-2022

[PocketOption]

US OPENING BELL 25-11-2022

EUROPEAN EQUITIES ARE MAINLY POSITIVE BUT LITTLE MOVED; MIXED DATA FROM GERMANY; THE USD CONTINUES ITS DROP WHILE THE ECB MINUTES SHOWED ONCE AGAIN AN HAWKISH STANCE.

The major European stock exchanges continue to update period highs and are trading in positive territory, except for the Dax, which trades at parity. The Cac40 is gaining 0.13%, and the Eurostoxx 0.10%.

Volatility remains very low due to the quiet presence of US traders in the market due to the long holiday weekend after Thanksgiving.

Meanwhile, mixed data came in from Germany this morning. In particular, GDP beat analysts’ expectations for both the quarterly (0.4% vs 0.3%) and yearly (1.2% vs 1.1%) figures; at the same time, however, a private consumer sentiment report showed a level of -40.2 vs the -39.6 expected by analysts. Nevertheless, the market received this data positively, mainly because even the only data that fell short of expectations on the negative side still recorded the third consecutive month-on-month increase, meaning consumer confidence remains low but improving.

Yesterday also saw the release of the minutes of the ECB’s latest monetary policy meeting. Policymakers voted overwhelmingly for the 75 bp increase, but some would have preferred a smaller increase. It was also pointed out that rates will certainly have to be raised further before inflation can be expected to be revised to the 2% target. So how much will the following increase amount to? Hard to say, but a possible compromise could be a smaller increase of 50bp combined with the start of quantitative tightening earlier than planned.

Finally, as regards the economic calendar, no notable macroeconomic data is expected to be released today.

EURUSD, M15

The EURUSD found a lot of sellers around the most important intraday resistance area, between the current weekly VAH and the W-1 VAH. In contrast, the most crucial intraday support is the 1.0380 mark (LVN). From a technical point of view, as long as prices remain below the resistance, the most likely scenario is a continuation of the drop toward the support and the W-1 POC in extension (weaker support around the 1.0358 mark). On the flip side, a breakout of the area between the current weekly POC and the W-1 VAH could lead prices up to the current weekly VAH again.

Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern: 1.0380, 1.0358, 1.0334.

Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern: 1.0404-1.0408, 1.0429.

S&P500, M30

The S&P500 index, as expected due to the low volatility in the market, is still trading in a very tight range from yesterday. The most significant intraday resistance area, is between the 4033 and the 4043 marks. In contrast, the most important support is the 4020 mark. From a technical point of view, as long as prices remain below the resistance, the most likely scenario is a drop toward the support and to the W-1 VAH in extension. On the other hand, a breakout of the resistance could lead prices to the 4074 mark.

Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern: 4020, 3999.

Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern: 4033-4043, 4074.

Key:

POC= Point of Control

VAH= Value Area High

VAL= Value Area Low

LVN= Low Volume Node

HVN= High Volume Node

W-1= last week

W-2= two weeks ago

W-3= three weeks ago

D-1= yesterday

D-2= two days ago

D-3= three days ago

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Source: US OPENING BELL 25-11-2022