**Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 05/07/2025**
**1. Market Overview**
As of **05/07/2025**, Bitcoin (BTC) futures are trading at **$108,071.80**, slightly below the spot price of **$108,118.69**, indicating mild bearish sentiment in the derivatives market. The **24-hour change** stands at **-0.83%**, with the daily range between **$109,144.33 (high)** and **$107,245.00 (low)**.
Key Observations:
- **Futures premium (basis)** is negative, suggesting short-term caution.
- The market is consolidating after recent volatility.
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**2. Technical Analysis**
**Moving Averages**
- **SMA (50): $108,859.64** (resistance)
- **EMA (50): $108,408.74** (near-term resistance)
- **SMA (200): $105,200.00** (long-term support)
**Analysis:**
- Price is below the 50-day SMA and EMA, indicating short-term bearish pressure.
- A break above **$108,860** could signal a bullish reversal.
**Relative Strength Index (RSI 14): 61.36**
- **Neutral-bullish** (not yet overbought).
- If RSI holds above **60**, upward momentum may continue.
**MACD: -189.98**
- **Bearish crossover** (MACD below signal line).
- Weak momentum, but a reversal could form if MACD turns upward.
**Additional Indicators**
**Fibonacci Retracement (Recent Swing High: $110,000 / Low: $106,000)**
- **Key Levels:**
- **23.6%:** $107,600 (support)
- **38.2%:** $108,480 (resistance)
- **50%:** $108,000 (pivot)
- **Current price near 50% retracement**, suggesting indecision.
**Bollinger Bands (20,2)**
- **Price near the middle band ($108,200).**
- A move toward the **upper band ($109,500)** would indicate bullish momentum.
**Average True Range (ATR 14): ~$2,500**
- **High volatility** persists; expect sharp moves.
**Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): $107,800**
- **Bullish if price holds above VWAP.**
**Elliott Wave Analysis**
- **Possible Wave 4 correction** underway.
- If **$107,000 holds**, Wave 5 upside could target **$112,000+**.
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**3. Trading Strategy**
**Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout**
- **Entry:** Above **$108,860** (50 SMA)
- **Stop Loss:** Below **$107,200** (daily low)
- **Take Profit:** **$111,000** (1.5% risk/reward)
- **Position Size:** 1-2% of capital
**Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation**
- **Entry:** Breakdown below **$107,000**
- **Stop Loss:** Above **$108,200**
- **Take Profit:** **$105,000** (1:2 risk/reward)
- **Position Size:** 1-2% of capital
**Risk Management**
- **Max risk per trade: 1-2%**
- **Leverage:** ≤ 5x (due to high volatility)
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**4. Fundamental Analysis**
**Recent Market Developments**
- **No major news** impacting BTC price as of **05/07/2025**.
- **Institutional inflows** remain steady, but derivatives market shows caution.
**Price Forecast**
- **Short-term:** Consolidation between **$107,000 - $109,500**.
- **Mid-term:** Breakout potential toward **$112,000** if bullish momentum resumes.
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**Final Thoughts**
BTC/USDT futures are in a **neutral-to-bearish** phase, awaiting a decisive breakout. Traders should monitor **$107,000 support** and **$108,860 resistance** for directional cues.
**Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before trading.
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