**Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 01 July 2025**
**1. Market Overview**
As of **01 July 2025**, Bitcoin futures (BTC/USDT) are trading at **$106,791.80**, slightly below the spot price of **$106,833.77**, indicating mild bearish sentiment in the derivatives market. The **24-hour change** stands at **-0.69%**, with the daily high at **$108,299.99** and the low at **$106,733.33**.
Key Observations:
- Futures are trading at a slight discount (backwardation), suggesting short-term bearish pressure.
- The market failed to sustain above **$108K**, leading to a pullback.
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**2. Technical Analysis**
**Moving Averages**
- **SMA (50): $107,647.32**
- **EMA (50): $107,460.77**
The price is trading below both the **50-SMA** and **50-EMA**, reinforcing a short-term downtrend. A break above these levels could signal a bullish reversal.
**Relative Strength Index (RSI 14): 35.09**
- The RSI is in **neutral-bearish** territory, approaching oversold conditions (below 30). A bounce from this level could indicate a short-term recovery.
**MACD: -192.94**
- The **MACD** remains in negative territory, with the histogram showing bearish momentum. A bullish crossover would be needed for a trend reversal.
**Fibonacci Retracement (From Recent Swing High to Low)**
- **Key Levels:**
- **23.6%:** $107,200
- **38.2%:** $107,800
- **50%:** $108,300
- **61.8%:** $108,800
- Current price is below the **23.6%** level, suggesting further downside if support at **$106,700** fails.
**Bollinger Bands (20,2)**
- Price is near the **lower band**, indicating potential oversold conditions. A bounce toward the middle band ($107,500) is possible.
**Average True Range (ATR 14): ~$1,200**
- Volatility remains moderate, suggesting potential for **$1,000-$1,500** moves in either direction.
**Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)**
- Current VWAP is **$107,100**, acting as resistance. A break above could signal bullish momentum.
**Elliott Wave Analysis**
- The market appears to be in a **corrective wave (Wave 4 or Wave B)** after a prior uptrend.
- If the correction holds above **$106,000**, a bullish **Wave 5 or Wave C** could follow.
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**3. Trading Strategy**
**Short-Term Bearish Scenario (If Resistance Holds)**
- **Position:** **Sell** (Short)
- **Entry:** $106,800-$107,000
- **Stop Loss:** $107,500 (above SMA 50)
- **Take Profit:** $105,500 (first target), $104,000 (second target)
- **Risk/Reward Ratio:** **1:2**
**Bullish Reversal Scenario (If Support Holds & RSI Bounces)**
- **Position:** **Buy** (Long)
- **Entry:** $106,500-$106,700 (with confirmation)
- **Stop Loss:** $105,900
- **Take Profit:** $108,000 (first target), $109,500 (second target)
- **Risk/Reward Ratio:** **1:3**
**Position Sizing**
- Risk **1-2%** of capital per trade.
- Leverage: **3x-5x** (moderate due to volatility).
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**4. Fundamental Analysis**
**Recent Market Developments**
- **Institutional Interest:** Major asset managers continue to accumulate Bitcoin, with ETF inflows remaining steady.
- **Regulatory News:** No major regulatory updates as of now, but market sentiment remains cautious.
- **Macro Factors:** Fed rate decisions and inflation data could influence BTC's next major move.
**Price Forecast**
- **Short-Term (1-2 weeks):** Range-bound between **$105K-$108K** unless a breakout occurs.
- **Mid-Term (1-3 months):** Bullish if BTC holds above **$100K**; bearish if it breaks below.
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**Conclusion**
Bitcoin futures are in a **short-term downtrend** but could see a reversal if key support holds. Traders should watch **$106,700** for potential long entries or **$107,500** for short opportunities.
**Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before trading.
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