**Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Futures - 20 June 2025**
**1. Market Overview**
As of **20 June 2025**, Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) futures are trading at **$104,658.30**, slightly below the spot price of **$104,708.00**, indicating mild bearish sentiment in the derivatives market. The 24-hour change stands at **+0.06%**, suggesting consolidation after recent volatility.
- **Daily High:** $105,073.53
- **Daily Low:** $103,929.27
- **Open Interest:** (Data N/A)
- **Funding Rate:** (Data N/A)
The market remains in a **neutral-to-bullish** phase, with futures trading near the spot price and minor upward momentum.
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**2. Technical Analysis**
**Key Indicators**
- **SMA (50):** $104,619.05 (support level)
- **EMA (50):** $104,725.85 (resistance level)
- **RSI (14):** 65.44 (approaching overbought but not extreme)
- **MACD:** -17.90 (bearish momentum weakening)
**Additional Indicators**
**Fibonacci Retracement (from recent swing high/low)**
- **0% (High):** $105,073.53
- **23.6%:** $104,800
- **38.2%:** $104,600 (key support)
- **50%:** $104,500 (strong support)
- **61.8%:** $104,300 (critical demand zone)
**Bollinger Bands (20,2)**
- **Upper Band:** $105,200 (resistance)
- **Middle Band (SMA 20):** $104,500
- **Lower Band:** $103,800 (support)
**Average True Range (ATR 14):**
- **Value:** ~$1,200 (moderate volatility)
**Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP):**
- **Current VWAP:** $104,550 (aligned with futures price)
**Elliott Wave Analysis**
- **Current Phase:** Likely **Wave 3** of an impulsive uptrend
- **Projected Target:** $110,000 if breakout occurs
- **Correction Risk:** If rejected at $105K, possible pullback to $103K
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**3. Trading Strategy**
**Recommendation:** **Buy on Breakout**
- **Entry:** Above $104,800 (confirmation of bullish momentum)
- **Stop Loss:** $103,500 (below key Fib & SMA support)
- **Take Profit 1:** $106,000 (near previous high)
- **Take Profit 2:** $108,000 (extended target)
- **Position Size:** 1-2% of capital (risk management)
- **Risk/Reward Ratio:** 1:3 (favorable setup)
**Alternative Scenario: Short on Rejection**
- **Entry:** Below $104,200 (breakdown)
- **Stop Loss:** $105,100
- **Take Profit:** $103,000
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**4. Fundamental Analysis**
**Recent Market Developments**
- **Institutional Inflows:** (No recent data)
- **Regulatory News:** (No major updates)
- **Macroeconomic Factors:** (Stable interest rates expected)
**Price Forecast**
- **Bullish Case:** Break above $105K could target $110K.
- **Bearish Case:** Failure to hold $104K may lead to $102K retest.
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**Conclusion**
BTC/USDT futures show **neutral-bullish** tendencies with key resistance at **$105K**. A breakout could trigger a rally, while rejection may lead to consolidation.
**Trade cautiously and monitor volume for confirmation.**
**Disclaimer**
*This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before trading.*