BTC/USDT Futures Analysis - November 3, 2024
1. Introduction
The current BTC/USDT price is approximately 68,430 USDT, with a slight increase of +0.29% over the past 24 hours. The daily trading volume remains high due to sustained interest in BTC following its recent rise to key resistance levels around 69,000 USDT. Meanwhile, geopolitical and economic factors, including a potential rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, add uncertainty that may impact the asset's short-term movements.
2. Technical Analysis
Key levels on the daily timeframe:
- Resistance: 69,000 and 70,000 USDT.
- Support: 67,500 and 66,000 USDT.
Key indicators:
- EMA 50 and 200 days show an upward trend, suggesting a potential continuation of the rise if key resistance levels are broken.
- RSI (14) is around 60, indicating room for further upward movement without significant overbought conditions.
- MACD maintains upward momentum but is close to the signal line, which could indicate a short-term correction.
- Bollinger Bands are tight, suggesting a possible increase in volatility in the coming hours.
- Fibonacci retracement levels: the key 61.8% level is at 67,500 USDT.
Elliott Wave Analysis suggests that the third wave of the upward movement may be completed, with a possible start of a fourth corrective wave, which could bring the price to the support level of 67,500 USDT.
3. Volume Analysis
- Open Interest: Over the past 24 hours, long positions dominate, indicating strong demand for BTC.
- Liquidations: The volume of liquidations on short positions is moderate, suggesting market balance and potential for consolidation.
- Options and ETFs: High interest in Bitcoin ETFs supports the general upward trend in the market, reinforcing support at the 69,000 level.
4. Forecast and Strategy
Based on the current analysis, a long position is recommended if the price breaks through the resistance level of 69,000 USDT.
Example for a capital of 1000 USDT with 20x leverage:
- Entry Point: 69,100 USDT.
- Take Profit: 70,500 USDT.
- Stop-Loss: 68,500 USDT.
Expected Return: ~21%, with a risk of approximately 3% of the initial capital.
5. Fundamental Analysis
Macroeconomic factors significantly impact BTC, especially expectations around Federal Reserve interest rates and economic data. Persistent inflation and risks in traditional markets increase interest in Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. Strong demand for cryptocurrencies from institutional investors also supports a positive market outlook, visible in volumes on major exchanges.
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