Market Overview
On October 31, 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading against Tether (USDT) at around $72,326.75 after a 24-hour pullback of approximately -0.16%. The weekly momentum remains strong with a 8.34% rise, reflecting continued optimism in the crypto sector. The 24-hour trading volume reached $58.28 billion, indicating robust activity despite recent sell-offs at the $70,000-71,000 resistance level, where strong selling interest emerged.
Technical Analysis
1. **Support and Resistance Levels**:
- **Daily Support**: $68,000, with secondary support around $65,000.
- **Daily Resistance**: Key resistance at $71,000, followed by a psychological barrier at $73,000.
- **Hourly Support**: Immediate support at $70,000, reinforcing a near-term bullish stance if maintained.
2. **Moving Averages (MA and EMA)**:
- **50-day EMA**: $69,200 (uptrend support).
- **200-day MA**: $63,500, showing a long-term bullish alignment.
3. **Indicators**:
- **RSI** (Relative Strength Index): Currently near 67, indicating approaching overbought conditions but still below extreme levels, suggesting room for upward momentum.
- **MACD**: Positive divergence on both daily and hourly timeframes, with MACD above the signal line, pointing toward sustained buying pressure.
- **Bollinger Bands**: Price is nearing the upper band, signaling a potential short-term retracement.
- **ATR** (Average True Range): High, suggesting continued volatility; short-term traders should manage risk.
- **VWAP**: Around $70,500, indicating fair value; price sustenance above this level may confirm bullish bias.
- **Fibonacci Retracement**: Key levels at $68,500 (0.618) and $71,000 (0.786) could act as reversal points.
*Elliott Wave Analysis*: BTC may be completing Wave 5 of a bullish cycle, with signs of consolidation near Wave 3 levels. This setup points to a possible corrective phase if the $71,000 barrier holds.
Volume Analysis
The trading volume on major exchanges shows sustained interest from bulls, but resistance at $71,000 suggests distribution by large players. Open Interest (OI) remains strong in futures, indicating commitment from both sides. Recent liquidations have been notable above $70,500, with more than $200 million in long positions cleared, hinting at a cautious stance by traders.
Strategy and Forecast
Given the strong weekly uptrend and $71,000 resistance test, a long position is recommended on a breakout above $71,200:
- **Entry**: $71,200
- **Stop-Loss**: $69,000
- **Take-Profit**: $73,500
A capital allocation of 1000 USDT with 20x leverage could yield an estimated profit of 15%, but caution is advised due to high volatility.
Fundamental Factors
Macro factors like potential Fed rate changes and ETF developments are fostering optimism. Inflows from large funds, including institutions with Bitcoin ETFs, bolster the case for price stability. A weaker dollar and potential cooling inflation could further boost Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge.
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