United Overseas Bank (UOB) in Singapore are maintaining a 'base case' forecast for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its cash rate by 25bp at its next meeting, on November 5.
OUB say the cut is a "close call' and "very much dependent on upcoming data
releases" ahead of the meeting date:
In their reasoning UOB cite their expectation that inflation in Australia will continue to moderate lower. UOB view core inflation progress as encouraging (trimmed mean dropped to 3.4% in the latest data published earlier this week, down from 3.8% in the previous month).
UOB say that if the deceleration in trimmed mean inflation continues into the next round of monthly CPI data, and Q3 data, this may prompt a November 5 cut.
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Good stuff from UOB. I think November is too early but I am lightly pencilling in December ... subject to seeing Q3 CPI data of course.
4-5 November and 9-10 December round out 2024 for Reserve Bank of Australia meetings.