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• The cautious mood holds so far in European morning trade
• JP Morgan raises probability of US recession by year-end to 35%, up from 25% previously
• Magnitude 7.1 earthquake hits Japan's southern region, tsunami warnings issued
• AUD/USD holds higher for now, traders watching risk sentiment for the next clue
• European indices marked lower at the open today
• What are the main events for today?
• FX option expiries for 8 August 10am New York cut
• Eurostoxx futures -0.8% in early European trading
• It's an empty economic calendar in Europe today
• The storm clouds are starting to brew again

Markets:

• AUD leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities lower;
       S&P 500 futures +0.03%
• US 10-year yields down 2.2 bps
       to 3.921%
• Gold
       up 1.30% to $2,412
• WTI
       crude up 0.05% to $75.26
• Bitcoin
       up 4.28% to $57501

The European
session has been uneventful with no economic data or notable headlines. The
market is waiting for the US jobless claims figures as the data might either
lift the risk sentiment or trigger another wave of risk-off flows.

In the markets,
the most notable mover has been the AUD as it rallied during the Asian session
on hawkish comments from RBA's Governor Bullock. Other than that, there's nothing
else that catches the eye.

The focus will
now switch to the US jobless claims report. Initial Claims are expected at 240K
vs. 249K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1870K vs. 1877K prior. The distribution
of forecasts is skewed to the downside with most seeing the data coming out in
the 235K-245K range.