A storm is tracking across Cuba over the next 24 hours but then it will quickly turn north and track along the Florida west coast.
"The system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it moves offshore," the NHC says. "The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with light shear and very warm sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady strengthening is expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the intensity forecast are how long the system will remain offshore of Florida and how long it will take to consolidate."
The meaning here is that if the storm swings further into the gulf, it will have more time to intensify before curving back over land in northern Florida on Sunday.