Nick Timiraos says today's jobs report wasn't alarming enough to put a July rate cut on the table (pricing is just 5%) but says that it could open up a real debate about September.
The June jobs report will make the July Fed meeting more interesting because there may be--for the first time all year--a real debate over whether to cut at the *next* meeting (in September)
The thing is, the Fed will need to lay out some stronger hints of a cut but he also highlights next week's CPI report as a key variable ahead of the July 30-31 meeting.
The Fed's policy debates are inertial, owing to officials' desire to telegraph clearly their decisions. As a result, policy meetings tend to focus as much on what officials should do next time as on the outcome of the current meeting.
That means a central focus of the July meeting will be if and how the committee signals its openness to a September cut.
The market is pricing in a 79% chance of a cut at the September meeting.