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Inflation data from Japan for October 2023

Japan headline CPI: 3.3% y/y

• expected 3.4%, prior 3.0%

 CPI excluding fresh food 2.9% y/y, higher than the previous for the first time in 4 months

• expected 3.0%, prior 2.8%
• above the 2% target for 19 months now

 CPI excluding fresh food & energy 4.0% y/y

• expected  4.1%, prior 4.2%

As I said earlier:

• Headline and core rates of inflation have been above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for more than a year. If you've been following along you'll know that the Bank of Japan had insisted, over and over again, that they expected high inflation levels (for Japan) to be transitory. The Bank is now waiting for Spring (Japan Spring 2024) wage negotiations to show signs that pay rises will support sustained and stable inflation at or above the target. Once they are convinced of that the Bank will move to trim accommodative policy. Expectations are for some time next year:

• Poll - Economists predict Bank of Japan will end negative rates policy in 2024

Given the Bank of Japan is effectively on pause until the outcome of Spring wage talks is known the yen impact of this data is not large. 

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The October Tokyo area inflation data is here:

• Japan inflation data - Tokyo area CPI for October headline 3.3% y/y vs. 2.8% prior
• Japan (Tokyo) core inflation jumped in October - questions raised about BOJ negative rates