On the
daily chart below, we can see that crude oil has recovered a lot since the
flash crash into the $64 support. The
black gold has been trying to break above the key resistance zone at the $73
level for several times, but it just keeps failing. There are strong sellers
there as they may be seeing future demand dropping more than expected due to a
possible global recession.
In fact,
we have been seeing manufacturing PMIs collapsing across the globe, with the China Manufacturing PMI released
today coming in much lower than expected and in contractionary territory. It's
worth remembering that China is the world's biggest oil importer, so this data
may weigh on oil prices.
WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis
On the 4
hour chart below, we can see that yesterday crude oil sold off pretty heavily
into the $69.40 level and seems stabilising there. For the buyers this seems
like the last line of defence as the next support comes only at the $64 level.
We might
even create a range here between the $69.40 support and $73 resistance. In case
we see the crude oil dropping more though, the sellers will get even more
conviction for a fall into the $64 area and the buyers are likely to fold
increasing the downside momentum.
On the 1
hour chart below, we can see that this $69.40 level is a "make it or break it"
moment for the buyers. If they pile in here, they will have a defined risk
below the recent low and the first target would be the $71 level with the
resistance at $73 next.
The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the recent low to be taken out to
increase the selling pressure and take the crude oil back to the $64 support,
aiming for a major breakout and new lower lows probably into the $57 level
next.