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<p class="MsoNormal">There are two major risks that markets are grappling with: </p><ol><li>That inflation stays too high or gets stuck at 4%</li><li>That growth falls off a cliff because rates
are too high and the lagged effects of monetary policy</li></ol><p class="MsoNormal">The Fed is in the middle, trying to engineer a soft landing and
sounding far too confident about it. A camel has a better chance of passing
through the eye of a needle than the Fed of nailing a soft landing so it's much
more a question of on which side they miss.</p><p class="MsoNormal"> In terms of how they characterize
risks, they're much more worried about inflation so I'm not going to fight that
-- the better bet is that they eventually overtighten and kill growth. That will put a fresh bid into the US dollar and weigh on on risk assets but the timing of how that unfolds is also uncertain. </p><p class="MsoNormal">In any case, there isn't a great deal to be made in any kind
of trade predicting lower growth. The bond market is already there, oil and commodities
are down. Stocks are beaten up.</p><p class="MsoNormal">So what's the trade? It's one economic data point at a time.
I haven't seen a market so tuned into macro data since 2008. Every data
point is a market mover right now and that speaks to the uncertainty. I don't
see that ending so that natural volatility in economic data will add extra
volatility to markets. That's exactly what we do here at ForexLive and it's the best kind of a market for macro traders.</p><p class="MsoNormal">A wave of releases starts next week, including December
non-farm payrolls. Your most important tool in 2023 is the economic calendar.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/4-trading-themes-for-2023-4-give-china-a-kiss-20221229/" target="_blank" rel="follow">4 trading themes for 2023: #4 Give China a KISS</a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/4-trading-themes-for-2023-3-europe-is-a-weather-trade-but-the-sun-cant-shine-forever-20221230/" target="_blank" rel="follow">4 trading themes for 2023: #3 Europe is a weather trade (but the sun can't shine forever)</a></p>

                This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.