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n Missile in Poland Sends WTI Spiking

was accused of firing two n-made missiles into Poland yesterday in what was initially thought to be a significant escalation in the conflict between  and e. The headline story primarily impacted WTI as traders responded to the developing situation, but the narrative quickly shifted after Biden said that it was unlikely a n strike, with oil prices retreating somewhat.

Key Factors for Today:

• n missile landing in Poland sends ripples in markets until Biden comments


• Inflation slowdown narrative supported by PPI print -for now


• Fed officials net backing down from hikes or rhetoric whatsoever


• UK's Chancellor extends energy price support ahead of Autumn Budget

Geopolitics sends oil 4% higher, momentarily

Equities fell around 1%, and crude prices spiked some 4% higher momentarily after what was initially reported as a n rocket landing in Poland. All three major US indices gave back some of their intraday gains, but the event was somewhat resolved after US President Biden said that it was unlikely the missile originated in  due to its trajectory, with the three majors still recovering mode. WTI, on the other hand, is still trading on positive footing despite having recoiled nearly 50% of the gains.

US PPI affirms inflation slowdown

US producer prices rose only 0.2%, less than the 0.4% expected, and fit at the same level seen before the pandemic. This affirmed the narrative that inflation was finally getting under control. However, bond prices helped buoy the dollar after Fed officials discussed the possibility of more rate hikes. The US index reached an August low in yesterday's session just above 105.00 but recovered nearly all losses following the news, printing a 'hammer' candlestick. The same pattern repeated on EUR/USD and GBP/USD as they left a tail following a rejection at $1.05 and $1.20 -respectively.

Safe havens ebb and flow

Initial geopolitical risks led to a move towards safe havens after the announcement that NATO Ambassadors would convene, but the move faded through the Asian session as officials downplayed the situation and the Polish President said it was a one-off incident. Gold saw its price spiking 1% higher at $1789/oz on the hour, but it has fallen back to its origin where it currently trades -around $1775/oz.

UK to extend energy price support

Speaking ahead of the announcement of the Autumn Budget, Chancellor Hunt said that energy price support would extend beyond April. The pound was little moved as the extension would imply less inflationary p[ressure in the short-term, however, it might partially be due to the autumn Budget announcement widely expected tomorrow, November 17.

Movers and shakers

• Walmart rose (+7%) after beating estimates and raised its outlook by announcing $20B in share buybacks. The firm saw inventory grow by 12% (ahead of the holiday season)


• Home Depot (+2%) disappointed despite affirming outlook. Saw inventory increase by 20%


• Carnival plunged (-12%) after filing to sell $1B in convertible notes


• SVB Financial soared (+9%) after disclosing less than feared to FTX scandal


• Capital One slid (-6)% after it reported an increase in credit card charge-offs, as well as an auto delinquency increase to over 5.0%

On the docket

• UK CPI inflation ahead of the Autumn Budget and following poor jobs data


• Canadian CPI inflation and Housing Starts might move loonie


• US Retail Sales and Industrial Production for October


• Several Fed speakers adding to policy-inflation rhetoric


• EIA on Crude stocks after OPEC decided to revise growth


• Headlines coming out from the G20 meeting in Bali

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