Dow Jones/WSJ reports economists' 63% probability on a US recession in the next 12 months<p>A survey of economists in the Wall Street Journal. The gist of the expectation of recession is that expectations are that continued Federal Reserve rate hikes will mean higher unemployment and a downturn in the economy. Summed up by:</p><ul><li>"'Soft landing' will likely remain a mythical outcome that never actually comes to pass," said Daniil Manaenkov, an economist at the University of Michigan.</li></ul><p>From the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/economists-now-expect-a-recession-job-losses-by-next-year-11665859869" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">report</a> (gated):</p><ul><li>63% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 49% in July's survey</li><li>GDP will contract at a 0.2% annual rate in the first quarter of 2023 and shrink 0.1% in the second quarter</li><li>nonfarm payrolls will decline by 34,000 a month on average in the second quarter and 38,000 in the third quarter</li></ul>
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at forexlive.com.
Source: Dow Jones/WSJ reports economists' 63% probability on a US recession in the next 12 months (https://forexlive.com/centralbank/dow-joneswsj-reports-economists-63-probability-on-a-us-recession-in-the-next-12-months-20221016/https://forexlive.com/centralbank/dow-joneswsj-reports-economists-63-probability-on-a-us-recession-in-the-next-12-months-20221016/)
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