Modelling shows Australian coking coal exports to China could fall more than 20% by 2025Heds up to an interesting piece from Australian National University researchers that contrasts with complacent Australian government forecasts:
Our model suggests that if China sticks to its current climate pledges, thermal coal imports will drop by a quarter within three years from 210 megatonnes (Mt) in 2019 to 155Mt by 2025. That means Australian exports could fall by 20% by 2025, while Australian coking coal exports could fall even more. This is in stark contrast to predictions of stable demand or even continued growth by the Australian government.
How could this happen so quickly, when coal prices have roughly tripled compared to the last decade? In short, better infrastructure. China has invested in major rail projects, including a direct rail line to a major coking coal mine in Mongolia, as well as increasing use in scrap steel.
Link here for more, will be interest to AUD traders.
Source: Modelling shows Australian coking coal exports to China could fall more than 20% by 2025 (https://www.forexlive.com/news/modelling-shows-australian-coking-coal-exports-to-china-could-fall-more-than-20-by-2025-20220420/)
forexlive.com