As a violent credit unwinding seems inevitable, on-chain data suggests bitcoin holders remain convicted.
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As we've noted in previous Daily Dives and analyses, we're far more concerned with the current macro environment and the scenario of a violent credit unwinding in the market relative to the state of on-chain indicators and health of the derivatives market. We're anticipating more downside before more upside in the short to medium term. Although there have been signs of bitcoin responding positively to the rising uncertainty and geopolitical conflict (as seen by n and ian exchange volume and a premium on spot buying) -- bitcoin as a safe haven asset -- it has proven to be an asset to thrive on risk and liquidity.
That said, the latest state of on-chain supply dynamics can provide us with HODLer sentiment and behavior which are still some of bitcoin's strongest fundamentals. TLDR:
As of yesterday, 83.81% of supply has not moved in three months or more. This is just shy of the all-time high seen back in October 2021 of 85.41% and significantly higher than the 76.93% median seen throughout Bitcoin's history. We use three months as a threshold as it's a similar period of time for Glassnode's threshold for long-term holders.