Bitcoin price extended its decline below the $65,000 support zone. BTC is now consolidating losses and might attempt a recovery wave toward $67,000.
Bitcoin price turned red after it broke the $68,000 support zone. BTC extended its decline below the $65,500 and $65,000 levels. Finally, it tested the $64,500 region.
A low was formed near $64,572 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a move above the $65,000 level. The price even tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $71,306 swing high to the $64,572 low.
Bitcoin is now trading below $67,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $67,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD.
Immediate resistance is near the $66,000 level. The first major resistance could be $67,200 and the trend line. If there is a clear move above the $67,200 resistance zone, the price could start a fresh increase. In the stated case, the price could rise toward the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $71,306 swing high to the $64,572 low at $67,950.
Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The next major resistance is near the $68,500 zone. Any more gains might send Bitcoin toward the $70,000 resistance zone in the near term.
If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $67,200 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $65,200 level.
The first major support is $64,500. The next support sits at $64,000. If there is a close below $64,000, the price could start a drop toward the $62,500 level. Any more losses might send the price toward the $60,500 support zone in the near term.
Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD - The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) - The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.
Major Support Levels - $65,200, followed by $64,500.
Major Resistance Levels - $66,000, $67,200, and $67,950.
Renowned venture capitalist and Bitcoin advocate Anthony Pompliano has recently sparked discussions with his post on X addressing the predictions of Bank of America.
According to Pompliano’s post, the US government may face a $1.6 trillion annual interest payment by December, should the Federal Reserve persist with its current monetary policies.
This projection has ignited speculation among market observers, with suggestions pointing to a scenario that heralded inflation in the US economy.
Notably, Bitcoin is emerging as a focal point in discussions, touted by some as a potential hedge against inflation and a contender for the future standard of currency if the US dollar falters.
Time for the FED to cut interest rates and let inflation explode higher.
OR
Leave interest rates high and allow annual interest payments to be insanely high thus causing inflation to explode higher.
I will keep stacking #Bitcoin to hedge against this mess.
-- Not Larry Fink (@NotLarryFink) April 1, 2024
Meanwhile, during a recent feature on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Anthony Pompliano delved into the multifaceted nature of Bitcoin’s role in the financial landscape. He highlighted the varied perceptions of Bitcoin among different market participants, ranging from a “speculative asset” to a “hedge against inflation and store of value.”
Pompliano underscored the distinction between investors seeking short-term gains through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and those adopting Bitcoin as a long-term hedge against inflation.
Bitcoin provides hope & protection for anyone.
The US dollar has lost 25% of its purchasing power in 4 years, while bitcoin has gained over 800%.
We are watching a global store of value be adopted.
Here is my full segment on @SquawkCNBC this morning. pic.twitter.com/XvO0B4yE0o
-- Pomp
(@APompliano) April 1, 2024
Drawing on global examples, Pompliano elucidated how individuals in different regions, such as Nigeria and Argentina, are leveraging on buying BTC and stablecoins, respectively, reflecting diverse strategies in response to economic circumstances.
Pompliano noted:
You don’t have to go to emerging market to find out why people want to buy this. If you look at the United States Dollar it has lost 20% of its purchasing power since 2020, Bitcoin is up 800% during that same time period.
It is worth noting that despite recent market volatility, characterized by Bitcoin’s notable decline over the past week, Pompliano’s remarks shed light on Bitcoin’s resilience and potential for future growth.
Notably, Bitcoin has experienced a significant pullback, losing nearly 10% of its value over the week and further declining by 6% in the past 24 hours alone. Its current market price hovers around $65,234.
Market analysts attribute this downturn to diminishing expectations of Federal Reserve interventions and waning demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs, as highlighted in a Bloomberg report.
Stefan von Haenisch, who serves as the Head of Trading at OSL SG Pte., remarked on the prevailing pessimism regarding potential rate cuts, stating that it has significantly impacted the crypto space. He noted a sell-off occurring as the week commenced, affecting various sectors, particularly those with better performance than Bitcoin over the last six months, such as meme-based cryptocurrencies.
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView
The cryptocurrency market has witnessed a significant surge after a prolonged bear market and the intensified crypto winter caused by the collapse of crypto exchanges and firms during 2022 and part of 2023.
Notably, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have experienced substantial price surges, accompanied by renewed interest from institutional investors entering the market through recently approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Adding to the industry’s positive outlook, asset manager and Bitcoin ETF issuer, Grayscale, believes that the current state of the market indicates that the industry is in the “middle” stages of a crypto bull run.
Grayscale recently released a comprehensive report detailing their key findings and insights into what lies ahead. A closer analysis of the report by market expert Miles Deutscher sheds light on the factors contributing to this assessment.
Grayscale’s report starts by highlighting several key signals indicating that the market is currently in the middle of a bull run. These include Bitcoin’s price surpassing its all-time high before the Halving event, the total crypto market cap reaching its previous peak, and the growing attention from traditional finance (TradFi) towards meme coins.
To understand how long this rally might sustain, Grayscale emphasizes two specific price drivers: spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and strong on-chain fundamentals.
Grayscale notes that nearly $12 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in just three months, indicating significant "pent-up" retail demand. Moreover, ETF inflows have consistently exceeded BTC issuance, creating upward price pressure due to the demand-supply imbalance.
Grayscale’s research focuses on three critical on-chain metrics: stablecoin inflows, decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked (TVL), and BTC outflows from exchanges.
According to Deutscher, the increase in stablecoin supply on centralized exchanges (CEXs) and decentralized exchanges (DEXs) by approximately 6% between February and March suggests enhanced liquidity, making more capital readily available for trading.
Furthermore, for the analyst, the doubling of the total value locked into DeFi since 2023 represents growing user engagement, increased liquidity, and improved user experience within the DeFi ecosystem.
The outflows from exchanges, which currently account for about 12% of BTC’s circulating supply (the lowest in five years), indicate rising investor confidence in BTC’s value and a preference for holding rather than selling.
Based on these catalysts, Grayscale asserts that the market is in the “mid-phase” of the bull run, likening it to the “5th inning” in baseball.
Several key metrics support Grayscale's analysis, including the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio, which indicates that investors who bought BTC at lower prices continue to hold despite rising prices.
According to Deutscher, the Market Value Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score, currently at 3, implies that there is still room for growth in this cycle. Additionally, the ColinTalksCrypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI), which integrates multiple ratios, currently stands at 79/100, suggesting that the market is approaching historical cycle peaks with some upward momentum remaining.
Furthermore, retail interest has yet to fully return this cycle, as evidenced by lower cryptocurrency YouTube subscription rates and reduced Google Trends interest for “crypto” compared to the previous cycle.
Ultimately, Grayscale retains a “cautiously optimistic” stance regarding the future of this bull cycle, given the promising signals and analysis outlined in their report.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin supply in profit has plunged following the latest crash in the asset’s price towards the $65,000 level.
As analyst James Van Straten pointed out in a post on X, around 10% of the BTC supply is now in a state of loss. The on-chain indicator of interest here is the “Percent Supply in Profit,” which tracks the percentage of the total circulating Bitcoin supply holding an unrealized gain.
This metric works by going through the blockchain history of each coin in circulation to see the price at which it was last transferred. Assuming that this previous transaction involved a change of hands, the price at its moment would serve as the cost basis for the coin.
The coins with a cost basis that is less than the current spot price of the cryptocurrency would naturally be considered to be holding a profit, and as such, they would be counted under the supply in profit.
The Percent Supply in Profit adds up all such coins and calculates what part of the total supply they make up for. The opposite metric, the Percent Supply in Loss, adds up the coins not satisfying this condition.
Since the total circulating supply must add up to 100%, the Percent Supply in Loss can be deduced from the Percent Supply in Profit by subtracting its value from 100.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Percent Supply in Profit for Bitcoin over the last few months:
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit has seen a sharp drop recently as the cryptocurrency price has gone through a significant drawdown.
The indicator’s value has dropped to around the 90% mark, which means that about 10% of the supply is currently carrying a loss. The chart shows that the last time the metric touched these levels was back on 22 March. Interestingly, the asset also found its bottom around then.
Earlier, the Percent Supply In Profit had pushed towards the 100% mark, which was a natural consequence of the price setting a new all-time high (ATH), since at fresh highs, all of the supply must be out of the red.
Generally, the investors in profit are more likely to sell their coins, so if many come into gains, the possibility of a mass selloff rises. Due to this reason, high levels of the Percent Supply In Profit have often led to tops.
Similarly, bottoms become more likely when investor profitability levels drop relatively low. The current value of 90% is still quite high, but this isn’t unusual during bull runs, as there is strong demand and ATHs are being explored.
The fact that the profitability has cooled off compared to earlier levels may be constructive for the rally’s chances to see a continuation, just like it did last month.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin has been trading at around the $65,700 level, down more than 5% over the past week.
The crypto market is abuzz with speculation as the US government recently moved significantly regarding seized Bitcoin (BTC) linked to the infamous Silk Road dark web marketplace. This development comes at a critical time for the Bitcoin price, which has struggled to maintain its position above the $70,000 threshold after hitting its current all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 on March 14.
As the largest cryptocurrency experiences yet another round of price correction, the movement of these seized funds has triggered intense speculation about a potential sell-off by the US government.
According to on-chain data, a wallet linked to the US government recently transferred 30,175 Bitcoin, seized from the Silk Road dark web marketplace.
This transfer follows the earlier seizure of over 50,000 Bitcoin from James Zhong, who illegally obtained the cryptocurrency from the Silk Road in 2012. The US Department of Justice’s (DOJ) seizure of these funds marked the largest cryptocurrency seizure in its history.
This is not the first instance of the US government moving Bitcoin obtained from criminal cases. In March 2022, the government sold 9,800 Bitcoin, with plans to sell an additional 41,500 BTC. However, the recent transfer of the 30,175 BTC from Silk Road-related addresses has raised questions about the fate of these funds and their potential impact on the Bitcoin price correction.
Benjamin Skew, an on-chain data expert, took to social media to offer insights into the situation. Skew clarified that although there is chaos surrounding the Silk Road Bitcoin being sent to Coinbase for sale, a closer examination reveals that the main funds were transferred to a newly created wallet that remains inactive.
However, Skew stated that 2,000 BTC of the total amount was transferred to the alleged Coinbase wallet for undisclosed purposes, while the rest was sent to a newly created wallet.
The Bitcoin price is currently witnessing a lack of bullish momentum as the cryptocurrency continues to face resistance in consolidating above the crucial $70,000 threshold. However, there is still hope on the horizon.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlights the importance of the 200-epimetric moving average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart of BTC. According to Martinez, this indicator has acted as formidable support since early February and continues to play a crucial role in preventing further downward movement.
The focus on the 200EMA stems from its potential to either catalyze a rebound or trigger more losses for Bitcoin. Martinez stated that if the 200EMA continues to hold as strong support, it signifies a significant probability of a price rebound. This scenario would provide renewed bullish momentum and potentially propel Bitcoin’s price above the $70,000 mark.
However, if the 200EMA is broken, as it was in mid-January, as seen in the chart below, the analyst suggests that this could expose the Bitcoin price to further downward pressure and potentially lead to further losses.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $65,390, continuing its recent price correction. Over the past 24 hours, BTC has experienced a 5% decline; over the past seven days, it has seen a significant drop of over 6%.
The market closely monitors whether the current key support level can sustain further price drops or if a potential bounce will occur before reaching that point. The outcome of these scenarios remains uncertain.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
The price of Solana had briefly crossed $200 before tumbling back down in the last week. This move has triggered a wave of movement across the market, and whales are now showing their hands. Over the last day, there have been a number of notable whale transactions and their destinations could give an inkling as to how these large crypto investors are looking at the market right now.
The whale movements began on Monday when the market had first begun to slow down, with the Solana price falling below $190. The on-chain data tracking platform Whale Alert, reported these transactions, a number of which seemed to happened right next to one another.
The first transaction was one carrying 993,453 SOL which was worth $189.55 million at the time. Then minutes later, the tracker reported the movement of another 1,895,729 SOL worth $361.7 million. Not too long after, it reported a third transaction carrying 1,096,940 SOL worth $209.29 million. Then, the last transaction in this row of transactions was 1 million SOL, valued at $190 million at the time of the transaction.
Now, all of these Solana transactions had originated from unknown wallets and their destination were also unknown wallets. This means that the owners of these wallets are not publicly known and their addressed have not been tagged. In such cases, it could suggest that these whales are selling their tokens over the counter in order to minimize the impact of their selling on the market market. However, it could also be that these whales are just redistributing their coins.
Nevertheless, the whale movements didn't end here as a couple of hours later, the on-chain tracker would report the movement of massive amounts of SOL once more. This time around, a whale moved 149,999 SOL worth a little over $27.79 million from an unknown wallet to the Binance exchange.
This transaction deviates from the previous four transactions in the fact that its destination is a crypto exchange. Usually, when investors move their coins to exchanges such as Binance, it is to sell their tokens and a $27.79 million sale could put a lot of pressure on the SOL price.
The next whale transaction reported after this was an amore positive one though which involved the movement of 146,121 SOL worth $26.83 million from the Kraken exchange to an unknown wallet. In this case, it is likely that the whale is withdrawing their coins for safekeeping as they wait for better prices. This reduces the selling pressure on the asset.
Even with these whale movements, the SOL price continues to hold up quite nicely. If the selling pressure continues to fall and the pressure from Bitcoin's price decline is finally lifted, then SOL price could quickly rally above $200 once again.
Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocol MakerDAO is considering allocating 600 million DAI stablecoins to the USDe and staked USDe (sUSDe) protocols through the DeFi lending platform Morpho Labs. The proposed allocation aims to improve risk management and maximize user incentives in the DeFi landscape.
The Spark DAI Vault, launched in 2023 as a lending platform, experienced strong demand soon after its launch, according to MakerDAO’s announcement on the protocol’s governance forum.
Given the desire to keep liquidity risk at an acceptable level, MakerDAO proposes a greater allocation of DAI to the USDe pools, which can be immediately redeemed via Ethena (ENA), a synthetic dollar protocol developed on the Ethereum blockchain.
This reallocation also allows Ethena to retain a larger revenue share for their insurance fund, potentially improving the overall risk profile of MakerDAO’s Ethena allocation.
Furthermore, MakerDAO recommends focusing future allocations on the 86% and 91.5% Loan-To-Liquidity-Value (LLTV) pools, which have shown "higher efficiency" regarding borrow rates and user demand. While lower LLTV pools, such as the 77% and 94.5% pools, will continue to receive allocations, they will be proportionally lower than the two primary pools.
To mitigate potential insolvency risks and ensure a favorable risk-reward ratio, MakerDAO limits the total allocation to 600 million DAI. However, the Dividend Debt Mechanism (DDM) line parameter is set at 1 billion DAI to provide flexibility for future increases if constraints change.
In addition, MakerDAO recommends marginally increasing the funds deployed in the 77% and 94.5% pools to 10 million DAI each to ensure sufficient pool size for "efficient management of positions" and the calibration of interest rate models.
The recently unveiled Ethena points program for Season 2 introduces a $500 million cap on total eligible collateral for incentives on Morpho. If demand for DAI borrowing through the vault declines after this threshold is reached, the protocol states that Multisig can reduce allocations below $600 million to maintain a balanced supply/demand dynamic and align with expected collateral returns.
MakerDAO’s native token, MKR, hit a nearly three-year high of $4,074 on Sunday, which is 40% below its current all-time high (ATH) of $6,292 in May 2023. The token has pulled back nearly 2% and is currently trading at $3,717. It is consolidating above its next support level of $3,640.
Despite the retracement, MKR still boasts significant gains over longer time frames. It has posted a 25% gain over the past fourteen days and an impressive 80% gain over the past thirty days.
Demand for MKR tokens is evident as trading volume has increased to $274,659,607 over the past 24 hours, a substantial 40% increase from just one day ago, according to CoinGecko data. In addition, MKR’s market capitalization has seen a remarkable increase of nearly 100% over the past month.
Starting in March with a market cap of $1.8 billion, as of the most recent update on April 2nd, the market cap stands at $3.46 billion. This significant increase underscores the high level of interest in the MakerDAO protocol and its native token.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Ethereum (ETH) showed a notable performance throughout March. The second largest cryptocurrency hit $4,000 twice and seemed ready for lift-off to a new all-time high (ATH) while the whole crypto market soared.
Quarter one (Q1) 2024 closed with important achievements for the crypto community. However, as Q2 started, Bitcoin began a correction that dragged Ethereum and the rest of the crypto market.
The king of altcoins has registered red numbers for the past two days. ETH's momentum recovery after the market slowdown was halted after the token followed BTC and the rest of the market.
On Monday, crypto analyst Ali Martinez expressed concerns about Ether's future. He suggested investors should "always be prepared for the best and the worst" scenario.
Martinez deemed "breaching the $3,400 support level" as the most brutal scenario for the second-largest cryptocurrency. This move would confirm a bear pennant pattern that formed on the daily chart.
If confirmed, the bearish formation could trigger ETH's price to face a "major correction," according to the analyst. The correction could make Ether's price dip to $2,800.
Martinez reaffirmed his analysis after Ethereum continued to dip in the early hours of Tuesday. After the token fell under the support level mentioned above, the analyst asserted that falling under $3,460 was a problem for the bulls.
#Ethereum dropping below $3,460 is a problem for the bulls! Given the lack of support, it increases the chances for a further $ETH correction toward $2,850 or lower. pic.twitter.com/dFpnpZtBVM
— Ali (@ali_charts) April 2, 2024
"Given the lack of support," failing to regain this support zone could trigger further corrections for ETH that could go even lower than the previously forecasted $2,800.
According to the In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) chart shared by Martinez, Ethereum shows a potential price support between $2,846 and $2,905, with over 1.64 million ETH bought by 1.99 million addresses at this level.
Nonetheless, the chart also displays that an ETH rally could face resistance at $3,457 and $3,557.
Ethereum behaved no differently than the rest of the crypto market. Bitcoin's correction saw its price drop from the $70,000 mark to hover between the $65,000-$64,000 price range.
The flagship cryptocurrency shredded 7.1% of its price in the last 24 hours. Similarly, Ethereum's red numbers show a 7.4% drop from yesterday and a 7.5% decrease on Monday.
April fools shakeout to start the quarter.
Time to get to work. Let's get this bread boys
pic.twitter.com/0458Qvrr4F
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) April 1, 2024
In the weekly and monthly timeframes, the king of altcoins has decreased by 9.2% and 3.4%. However, its 3-month chart shows green numbers, with a positive 39.74% increase since 2024 started.
Despite the negative performance, Ethereum's daily trading volume increased a remarkable 80.80%, with over $22.5 billion traded in the last 24 hours, suggesting a rise in market activity. At the time of writing, ETH was trading at $3,283.
The Dogecoin (DOGE) price looks at risk of further declines as on-chain data show that the meme coin's largest holders are securing profits. This follows DOGE's recent price surge, which saw the crypto token rise to a new three-year high of $0.22.
Data from the market intelligence platform Santiment shows a drop in the number of Dogecoin holders holding between 10 million and 100 million DOGE tokens. This suggests that some holders have offloaded their tokens to secure profits from DOGE's recent price gains.
This wave of profit-taking looks to have become a pattern among DOGE holders, as further data from Santimemt showed that these whales also instantly booked their profits just after DOGE enjoyed an upward trend earlier in March. Bitcoinist even reported then of a Dogecoin whale that offloaded 86 million DOGE tokens on the market.
Considering the magnitude of these whales' holdings, their actions are bound to exert much selling pressure on the DOGE token. That explains why the meme coin has steadily declined since rising to as high as $0.22 last week. Interestingly, Santiment, in an X (formerly Twitter) post, had recently warned of an impending sell-off by these whales.
The crypto analytics platform noted how major dormant whales were moving their Dogecoin holdings back into circulation, which usually suggests they are getting ready to sell. Meanwhile, members of the DOGE community seem unfazed by the recent price dip, with many of them seeing it as an opportunity to accumulate more of the meme coin.
Dogecoin whales are expected to return and position themselves again once this wave of profit-taking by them is done. Besides taking profits, these whales also see this period as an opportunity to invest in DOGE at the market bottom and in anticipation of future price gains.
Despite this recent correction, there looks to be a lot of bullish momentum on the largest meme coin by market cap, especially with analysts predicting that it could rise to $1 in this market cycle. In the short term, Dogecoin is also expected to make another run soon, with significant events coming up for the meme coin this April.
The foremost US exchange, Coinbase, is set to launch Dogecoin futures for its institutional clients on April 29. This move could cause new money to flow into the meme coin's ecosystem and spark a price surge. DOGE Day is also happening on April 20, which will put the spotlight on the crypto token and possibly impact its price positively.
At the time of writing, DOGE is trading at around $0.18, down over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Altcoins like Ethereum, Cardano, Solana, and the rest might be lower at spot rates. However, according to one analyst who sees a parallel in the current formation to the 2020 market cycle, they are gearing up for a potential surge.
In a post on X, the analyst says that often, after a period of accumulation and a retest of previous highs, altcoins tend to be volatile. The crypto analyst also notes that Bitcoin has pulled back from its all-time highs and is preparing for a possible retest of this level registered in March.
Though altcoins have been decimated, looking at price action in the past 24 hours, altcoins are on a bullish path, similar to the last cycle registered in 2020. The analyst says Bitcoin will catalyze the altcoin swing to fresh levels and valuations.
For now, it is hard to predict the exact valuation of top altcoins. However, the analyst notes a similar formation in the current price action.
When altcoins consolidated after surging, prices tended to recover strongly. This spike was evident, especially once Bitcoin broke through critical liquidation levels and entered “price discovery” or fresh all-time highs.
Currently, Bitcoin is in this position. The coin is trading lower and cooling off from all-time highs. Even after higher highs last week, bulls didn’t break the $71,700 level in the daily chart. With BTC collapsing, altcoins also fell, with Ethereum, Solana, and top coins slipping below support levels.
The altcoin season might come earlier this time, especially once Bitcoin recovers. Possible triggers include the upcoming Bitcoin halving event. Analysts claim that halving will likely create a supply crisis, causing scarcity. If institutions funnel the same demand level, BTC will likely rip higher, breaking $71,700 and even $73,800 all-time highs.
Beyond this, upcoming network upgrades in Ethereum, like the recently mentioned “Purge” and Firedancer integration in Solana, might trigger demand. Developers are working towards Voltaire in Cardano. All these changes plan to make the top smart contracts platform more reliable and enhance performance.
Besides network upgrades, analysts are considering the possible approval of spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs). If the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves this product, ETH might benefit by lifting others. It might also accelerate the drafting of fitting laws, especially now that BlackRock thinks tokenization and real-world assets (RWAs) are the future of finance.
