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61
Сryptocurrency exchanges / TrumpCoin (DJT) Surges 55% Aft...
Last post by Bitcoin - Jul 12, 2024, 06:39 am
TrumpCoin (DJT) Surges 55% After News Of Trump's Participation In Bitcoin 2024 Conference

TrumpCoin (DJT) surged on Wednesday following the news of Donald Trump's participation in the Bitcoin 2024 Conference. The announcement propelled the token's price by over 55% while other Trump-inspired memecoins increased by nearly 20%.



Trump Joins The Bitcoin Conference


On July 10, Former US president and Republican candidate Donald J. Trump was officially announced as a keynote speaker at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference. The Bitcoin Conference will occur in Nashville, Tennessee, between the 25th and 27th of July.


TrumpCoin

Crypto-friendly Independent Presidential Candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will also participate in the upcoming event. Moreover, former pro-crypto Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy will join the largest Bitcoin conference in the world as a keynote speaker.


The CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, the organizer of The Bitcoin Conference, expressed his enthusiasm for Trump's participation. "July 27th we change the course of history," David Bailey stated in an X post.


The news of Trump's involvement in the event was well-received by many industry figures. However, other industry members and investors questioned Trump's intentions.  CryptoQuant's CEO Ki Young Ju wondered whether the former US president's efforts were genuine:



Is this a strategy to gain votes, or is it a genuine effort to make the United States a Bitcoin nation? Does anyone know?



Despite the skepticism, the crypto community seems optimistic about the news, as Trump-inspired tokens soared last night.


TrumpCoin And Trump-Inspired Memecoins Soar


TrumpCoin's price quickly reacted to the news, skyrocketing 55%. The token hit the $0.013 resistance level for the first time since June 27, according to DexScreener data.


DJT saw a controversial launch nearly a month ago after online reports claimed TrumpCoin was the "official" Trump token. As a result, many investors sold most of their Trump-inspired memecoins, making them crash around 30%.


 At the time, Martin Shrekli, also known as "Pharma Bro," claimed that the token was officially related to Trump's camp. Shrekli stated that Barron Trump, son of the former US president, was closely involved with TrumpCoin.


However, it was later revealed that Shrekli was behind the token. Crypto sleuth ZachXBT exposed the scheme on X, uncovering the truth before Shrekli admitted his involvement in an X Space.


Since then, DJT's price has gone on a descending trajectory. The token has seen a 33% decrease in the last two weeks. However, it registers a 10% increase from its price 24 hours ago, currently trading at $0.0086.



Other Trump-inspired memecoins also surged after the news. MAGA (TRUMP) rose from the $5.74 to the $6.54 price range in the following hours. The price action represented a 15% and 39.5% surge in the daily and weekly timeframes.


Similarly, MAGA Hat (MAGA) registered a 20% price increase, going from trading at $0.00015 to $0.00018. MAGA's performance saw a 50% increase from its price a week ago.


TrumpCoin

Source: TrumpCoin (DJT) Surges 55% After News Of Trump's Participation In Bitcoin 2024 Conference
62
Сryptocurrency exchanges / Ethereum Price Rises Amid Chal...
Last post by Bitcoin - Jul 12, 2024, 06:39 am
Ethereum Price Rises Amid Challenges: Will ETH Break Above $3,200?

Ethereum price extended its increase above the $3,120 resistance zone. ETH could soon aim for a move above the $3,200 resistance.



  • Ethereum is slowly moving higher above the $3,080 level.

  • The price is trading above $3,080 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.

  • There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $3,070 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).

  • The pair could rise steadily if there is a close above the $3,200 resistance zone.


Ethereum Price Outperforms Bitcoin


Ethereum price extended its recovery wave above the $3,050 resistance zone. ETH even climbed above the $3,150 resistance. Finally, there was a spike above the $3,200 resistance, outperforming Bitcoin.


It tested the $3,220 resistance zone. A high was formed at $3,213 and the price is now correcting gains. There was a minor decline below $3,150. The price tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,894 swing low to the $3,213 high.


Ethereum is now trading above $3,080 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $3,070 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.


On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $3,140 level. The first major resistance is near the $3,200 level. The next major hurdle is near the $3,220 level. A close above the $3,220 level might send Ether toward the $3,320 resistance.


Ethereum Price

The next key resistance is near $3,440. An upside break above the $3,440 resistance might send the price higher toward the $3,550 resistance zone in the coming days.


Are Dips Supported In ETH?


If Ethereum fails to clear the $3,140 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near $3,070 and the trend line. The first major support sits near the $3,000 zone and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,894 swing low to the $3,213 high.


A clear move below the $3,000 support might push the price toward $2,970. Any more losses might send the price toward the $2,895 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $2,820.


Technical Indicators


Hourly MACD - The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone.


Hourly RSIThe RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone.


Major Support Level - $3,070


Major Resistance Level - $3,200


Source: Ethereum Price Rises Amid Challenges: Will ETH Break Above $3,200?
63
Сryptocurrency exchanges / Bitcoin Price Falls Once More:...
Last post by Bitcoin - Jul 12, 2024, 06:39 am
Bitcoin Price Falls Once More: Are Bears Poised for Another Drop?

Bitcoin price started another decline from the $59,500 level. BTC is moving lower, and the bears could gain strength below the $56,000 support.



  • Bitcoin started another decline from the $59,500 resistance zone.

  • The price is trading below $57,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.

  • There is a key declining channel forming with resistance at $58,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).

  • The pair might continue to move down if it fails to stay above the $56,500 support.


Bitcoin Price Dips Again


Bitcoin price struggled to clear the $59,500 and $60,000 resistance levels. BTC peaked near the $59,500 resistance zone and recently started another decline. There was a move below the $58,500 level.


The price declined below the $57,800 and $57,500 support levels. It tested the $56,600 zone. A low was formed at $56,593 and the price is now consolidating losses. It is trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $58,963 swing high to the $56,593 low.


Bitcoin price is now trading below $57,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $57,750 level. The first key resistance is near the $58,000 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $58,963 swing high to the $56,593 low.


A clear move above the $58,000 resistance might start a decent increase in the coming sessions. The next key resistance could be $58,500. There is also a key declining channel forming with resistance at $58,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.


Bitcoin Price

The next major hurdle sits at $59,500. A close above the $59,500 resistance might start a steady increase and send the price higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $60,000 resistance.


More Downsides In BTC?


If Bitcoin fails to climb above the $58,000 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $56,600 level.


The first major support is $56,000. The next support is now near $55,000. Any more losses might send the price toward the $53,500 support zone in the near term.


Technical indicators:


Hourly MACD - The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.


Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) - The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.


Major Support Levels - $56,500, followed by $55,000.


Major Resistance Levels - $58,000, and $58,500.


Source: Bitcoin Price Falls Once More: Are Bears Poised for Another Drop?
64
Сryptocurrency exchanges / Is a Bitcoin Breakout Looming?...
Last post by Bitcoin - Jul 12, 2024, 06:39 am
Is a Bitcoin Breakout Looming? Options Markets Signal Imminent Volatility Surge

QCP Capital has recently released a new market analysis offering insight into what might be in store for the price of Bitcoin (BTC) -- more importantly, which direction it could move next. These fresh insights particularly focus on the options market.


Market Anticipates Movement: Analyzing Bitcoin Options


The latest report from QCP Capital has identified an interesting pattern in the Bitcoin options market, highlighting a rise in front-end volatility specific to BTC. This increase by 5 points in short-term volatility indicates that traders are preparing for larger price swings over the next few weeks.



Additionally, the increasing number of topside risk reversals suggests growing expectations among traders that prices will likely continue to increase favorably, influencing market sentiment.


According to QCP Capital, this combination of higher implied volatility and attractive risk reversals sets the stage for a potential bullish price rally. The QCP analysts particularly noted:



Bitcoin front-end volatility increased by 5 points this morning, with risk reversals favoring the topside, signaling the market’s anticipation of potential topside volatility.



While Bitcoin has shown some signs of recovery as the market digests these fundamental analytical forecasts, volatility persists on the way up. Particularly, amid the gradual rebound, the asset still appears to be getting pulled by the bears.


Earlier today, BTC traded as high as $59,313; however, at the time of writing, the asset has now shredded most of its gains for today and is now trading at $57,766, a few dollars away from its 24-hour low of $57,127.


Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

This continued volatility occurs against the backdrop of a broader financial market that is constantly changing, with a special focus now on the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). QCP noted:


With the perceived reduction in supply, a softer CPI print could serve as the catalyst to break out of this [current] range, especially bolstered by the upcoming launch of ETH spot ETF trading next week. We identify a compelling risk-reward opportunity on the upside through Digitals.


Long-Term BTC Holders Sentiment


Furthermore, regardless of all of these, the underlying confidence among Bitcoin's long-term investors remains unshaken. According to the latest on-chain data from Glassnode, this cycle’s steepest price corrections are not even persuading these investors to sell.


Glassnode reported that despite several market blips, like Bitcoin dipping to as low as the $53,500 mark last week, long-term holders are as determined as ever and have not changed their aspirations in months.


The data suggests that only 36% or perhaps even less of the total Bitcoin capital has moved during this week’s sell-off events – substantially lower than past major market capitulations with over 60% involvement.



This data suggests solid behavior that supports a well-established underlying market structure even as BTC undergoes one of the toughest post-halving cycles ever.


Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView


Source: Is a Bitcoin Breakout Looming? Options Markets Signal Imminent Volatility Surge
65
Сryptocurrency exchanges / Cardano Sees 1,218% Spike In T...
Last post by Bitcoin - Jul 12, 2024, 06:39 am
Cardano Sees 1,218% Spike In This Major Metric, Will ADA Price Follow?

The Cardano blockchain has been relatively quiet since the beginning of July, alongside an ADA price consolidation. As per on-chain transaction data, Cardano whales have also been relatively quiet since the last week of June. Daily whale inflows have steadied under 5 million ADA since the beginning of the month, save for a recent spike earlier in the week. Particularly, on-chain data from IntoTheBlock indicate a recent 1,218% spike in daily whale inflows, a development that may signal the start of an ADA price uptick.


Cardano Sees 1,218% Spike In Major Metric


According to the Large Holders Inflow from IntoTheBlock, the Cardano blockchain witnessed a 1,220% surge in whale inflow. As noted earlier, daily inflows into whale wallets have been on a decline since July 5. However, a surge in activity at the beginning of the week resulted in the number of inflows into whale addresses spiking from 14.51 million ADA on July 8 to 110.82 million ADA on July 9. This increase is more noticeable compared to the 2.83 million ADA recorded on July 7, which represents a 3815.9% increase in daily inflows over two days.



The Large Holders Inflow metric tracks the amount of tokens entering into wallets holding at least 0.1% of the circulating supply of ADA. According to data from Coinmarketcap, there are currently 35.87 billion ADA tokens in circulation. Meaning each wallet being tracked by the metric has to possess at least 35.87 million ADA tokens before they can be classified as large holders or whales. 


According to the ADA holdings distribution, only 0.01% of the total Cardano addresses are within the range of those possessing 10 million to 100 million ADA tokens. However, they control a majority (36.26%) of the coins in circulation, which gives them a say in the overall price movement. 


Will ADA Price Follow?


Whale activity doesn’t just affect prices directly; it can also sway overall market sentiment. When some of these big players make moves, it can either boost confidence or spread fear among other whales and retail investors. 



Recent bearish sentiment saw ADA hit a nine-month low of $0.3211, but it has rebounded and is now on the verge of reversing into a positive percentage in a seven-day timeframe. At the time of writing, ADA is trading at $0.3936, which has been up by 2.25% in the past 24 hours. As a result of this short-term price increase, ADA has been driven out of a falling wedge formation on the price chart, which might ultimately result in a 70% surge above the $1 threshold.


On the development side, the Cardano blockchain, which was recently accused of being a dead coin, is about to launch an upgrade to its network.


Cardano price chart from Tradingview.com

Source: Cardano Sees 1,218% Spike In This Major Metric, Will ADA Price Follow?
66
Сryptocurrency exchanges / Solana Price Tipped For Explos...
Last post by Bitcoin - Jul 12, 2024, 06:39 am
Solana Price Tipped For Explosive 1,800% Rally, Analyst Foresees $2,800 Price Target

The Solana price has experienced a significant decline, mirroring the price action of major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) over the past month. However, a crypto analyst has identified a significant parallel between the price movements of Ethereum in 2017 and Solana’s recent price performance.


In a recent social media post, crypto analyst Marty suggests that these similarities could lead to a massive price increase for Solana in the coming months, potentially resulting in a 1,800% rally for the Solana price. 


Solana Price Set For Epic Comeback?


After Solana’s explosive uptrend at the beginning of the year, which brought it close to its all-time high of $259 in March, the price has suffered a continuous decline of 58%, reaching a low of $121 on Friday, July 5.


However, the crypto analyst has spotted a significant similarity between ETH and SOL's prices when examining the price action over longer time frames. 











Marty highlights that Ethereum and Solana have experienced substantial drawdowns following their respective rallies. For instance, Ethereum faced a 95% drawdown in 2017, while Solana encountered a similar downturn before the 2021 bull run. 


Notably, after Ethereum’s drawdown in 2017, its price skyrocketed by 2000% over 660 days, reaching an all-time high of $4,878 in November 2021. Building on the similarities between Ethereum’s historical price action and Solana’s current performance, Marty predicts a similar price explosion lies ahead for SOL. 


Solana price

Based on his analysis, Marty believes that the market has been around 619 days since the Solana drawdown. By drawing a parallel to Ethereum’s rally timeline, Marty suggests that there may be approximately 50 days remaining before a comparable surge commences for SOL.


If Marty’s analysis holds, Solana could be on the cusp of an extraordinary rally with a projected target of $2,800, representing a 1,800% increase from the current price level. 


Consolidating For Potential Upside Breakout


Trading steadily at $140, the Solana price has consolidated above this crucial level for the past two days, maintaining a range between the current prices and $145.


While there hasn’t been a significant bounce this week, the significance of this level cannot be overstated, as it serves as a vital support floor for the token, which has been established over five months. 


This support floor is of utmost importance for bullish investors, as it sets the stage for potential upward movements and acts as a barrier against upper resistance levels.



In the event of a renewed bullish surge in SOL’s price action, the primary objective for bulls is to surpass the $150 level; this would pave the way to confront the most notable threshold for bears at $170, a resistance level that has persisted for four months. 


Overcoming this hurdle would potentially unlock further upward momentum, with targets set at $190 and, subsequently, the $200 mark. This would also position the Solana price to aim for its yearly high of $210.


Conversely, it is crucial for bullish investors to closely monitor the $134 level, which represents the next significant support floor for the Solana price. 


Solana price

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 


Source: Solana Price Tipped For Explosive 1,800% Rally, Analyst Foresees $2,800 Price Target
67
Сryptocurrency exchanges / Bitcoin Crash Forced Weak Hand...
Last post by Bitcoin - Jul 12, 2024, 06:39 am
Bitcoin Crash Forced Weak Hands Into Largest Loss-Taking Since 2022 Lows: Report

A new report from Glassnode has revealed that the Bitcoin short-term holders took part in the largest loss-taking event since 2022 in the recent crash.


Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Have Realized Huge Losses Recently


According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, less than 1% of trading days in the cryptocurrency’s history have seen the short-term holders taking higher losses than during the latest event.


The “short-term holders” (STHs) here refer to the Bitcoin investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. This cohort makes up one of the two main market divisions based on holding time, with the other group being called the “long-term holders” (LTHs).


Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them at any point. As such, the LTHs reflect the stubborn side of the market, which can weather through crashes and rallies, while the STHs include the weak hands that easily react to FUD or FOMO.



Given this fact, it’s not unexpected that this latter cohort has again shown a strong reaction to the recent volatility in the Bitcoin price. And since it’s been a crash, the STHs have been panic selling at a loss.


The below chart shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Loss specifically for the STHs over the past few years:


Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price

The Realized Loss here is an indicator that keeps track of the total loss the STHs realize through their selling. Also, note that the metric is “entity-adjusted,” meaning that the metric includes the data for entities instead of addresses.


An entity refers to a cluster of addresses that Glassnode has determined to belong to the same investor through its analysis. Transactions made between the wallets of the same investor would naturally not correspond to any real “loss-taking,” so excluding them from the data makes sense.


As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin STH Realized Loss registered a spike during the latest market downturn, implying that these investors made large transactions at a loss.


At the height of this capitulation event, the indicator’s value hit $595 million, the largest loss-taking the cohort has shown since the FTX collapse that led to the bottom of the 2022 bear market.



“Furthermore, only 52 out of 5655 trading days (< 1%) have recorded a larger daily loss value, highlighting the severity of this correction in dollar terms,” reads the report.


From the chart, it would appear that large spikes in the metric have come around at least local bottoms in the price, so this loss-taking event may have also formed another bottom for Bitcoin.


BTC Price


At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $58,800, up 3% over the past week.


Bitcoin Price Chart

Source: Bitcoin Crash Forced Weak Hands Into Largest Loss-Taking Since 2022 Lows: Report
68
Сryptocurrency exchanges / Forbes Says Shiba Inu Price Wi...
Last post by Bitcoin - Jul 12, 2024, 06:39 am
Forbes Says Shiba Inu Price Will Rise 1,700% To Reach $0.0003 ATH, Here's When

The Shiba Inu price and where it could be headed has long been a bone of contention among analysts. While some see the meme coin struggling for the foreseeable future, others expect the coin to resume its rally and actually reach a new all-time high. A new Forbes report falls in the latter category, expecting a significant surge in price towards new highs.


Shiba Inu Price To Reach New ATH


In the Forbes report, the Shiba Inu token is lauded for its development and growing utility, pushing it to become the 13th-largest cryptocurrency in the space. However, over the last few years, the price has struggled and has failed to reclaim its $0.00008 all-time high despite the bitcoin price reaching new highs.



The report points to a number of predictions, while tracing the performance of Shiba Inu through the years. One notable prediction is that of Utkarsh Tiwari, the chief strategy officer of KoinBX. Tiwari predicts that the price of SHIB could rally more than 100% from its current level to reach above $0.00003. The strategist believes that this could happen for the meme coin sometime around the end of 2024.


However, for Forbes, a more realistic price point for the meme coin was set at $0.0001 to $0.0003. This deviates from Tiwari's upper bound of $0.000396 for 2024, as it is a reasonable distance away from the current SHIB price of $0.000016.


In the longer time frame, Tiwari predicts that the Shiba Inu price could go as high as $0.0000456 in favourable market conditions by 2025. However, pointing to "technological advancements and regulatory updates," the report puts the price as high as $0.00007488 for 2025.


SHIB Sees Dwindling Pressure


Amid the high expectations for the Shiba Inu price, the meme coin has continued to struggle in the market. The market sell-offs affected the price over the last week, pushing it down to retest the support at $0.000016. Although the support held, it has shown how much pressure the bears are putting on the price.



On the volume front, the SHIB token is still struggling, as CoinMarketCap data shows a 22% decline in the last 24 hours alone. However, this could be good for the meme coin as it could mean that sellers are running out of steam, which could see the price push back up once again.


For now, bulls continue to maintain the Shiba Inu price above $0.000016, getting a small boost from inflation data coming in lower than expected at 3%.


Shiba Inu price chart from Tradingview.com

Source: Forbes Says Shiba Inu Price Will Rise 1,700% To Reach $0.0003 ATH, Here's When
69
Сryptocurrency exchanges / X Silences Artist, Is Freedom ...
Last post by Bitcoin - Jul 12, 2024, 06:39 am
X Silences Artist, Is Freedom of Expression Lost? Does Elon Know?

The enigmatic artist Mr. Black, known for his cryptic street art and ambitious 21,000-piece ordinal collection on the Bitcoin blockchain, claims that his attempts to advertise on the social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter) have been blocked. This raises questions about potential censorship and the influence of powerful entities behind the scenes.


Mr. Black has garnered global attention with his mysterious posters and stickers in cities like Jerusalem, Rome, Mexico City, Paris, and Tel Aviv. His bold claim that the Messianic Age will be revealed once his entire collection is fully minted has sparked both excitement and skepticism.


In a series of posts, Mr. Black alleges that X has systematically blocked his attempts to promote his collection. This is concerning given the platform's role in reaching a global audience.


Mr. Black_1


Mr. Black_2


The Role of GARM


Mr. Black speculates that the Global Alliance for Responsible Media (GARM) may be responsible. GARM, a controversial organization supposedly aims to ensure brand safety and reduce harmful content in advertising, but its guidelines can sometimes be overly restrictive. GARM has been in the news recently and has been subject to a congressional hearing. 


Mr. Black's Allegations


Mr. Black's allegations raise several critical questions:



  • Why has X blocked Mr. Black's advertisements?

  • Is GARM's influence suppressing controversial art and messages?

  • Are powerful figures depicted in Mr. Black's art influencing this decision?

  • Is Elon Musk aware of GARM's potential influence within X?


Recently, Mr. Black has posted provocative art pieces featuring figures like Elon Musk (@elonmusk), Dana White (@danawhite), Jeff Bezos (@JeffBezos), CZ from Binance (@cz_binance), and Ayatollah Khamenei (@khamenei_ir). These artworks critique the roles these individuals play in global affairs and technology.


Implications of the Block


Blocking Mr. Black's advertisements suggests efforts to limit the reach of his message. This raises broader concerns about freedom of expression, particularly for artists who challenge powerful entities.


Key Questions



  • Is Mr. Black being unfairly targeted due to the controversial nature of his work?

  • How transparent are X's advertising policies, and what role does GARM play?


The Stakes

Advertising on X is crucial for Mr. Black to reach a wider audience and fulfill his goals. His declaration that minting out his collection will reveal the Messianic Age--a time of universal peace and enlightenment--requires significant visibility.


Conclusion

As Mr. Black's countdown to the reveal continues, the art and crypto communities are watching closely. The alleged advertising block on X adds complexity to his mysterious persona. Whether or not Mr. Black's vision of the Messianic Age will come to pass, the controversy highlights the ongoing struggle for artistic freedom in the digital age. The world waits to see if Mr. Black can overcome these obstacles and fulfill his ambitious prophecy.


Cover image from Mr. Black


Source: X Silences Artist, Is Freedom of Expression Lost? Does Elon Know?
70
Сryptocurrency exchanges / Merchant Loyalty Competitive A...
Last post by Bitcoin - Jul 12, 2024, 06:39 am
Merchant Loyalty Competitive Advantage - Reimagined Through Bitcoin

The Loyalty Business on the Fiat Standard

I worked at Mastercard for the last ten years, in the San Francisco office, building card-linked offer solutions to drive merchant loyalty. It's a fascinating business, where cardholders receive merchant offers delivered via their bank, providing them with a discount if they make a qualifying spend at participating merchants. Below is an example of a sample of these offers/deals from my personal Wells Fargo bank account.


                       
                       
                       
                   

                   

The offers drive new customer acquisition, reactivate lapsed customers and drive higher spend frequency and 'basket size' from existing customers. Overall, the marketing solution is very effective at driving incremental spend behavior, mainly through credit card (some debit card) payment channels.

Enter Bitcoin

Bitcoin as medium-of-exchange doesn't get much attention, as bitcoiners are supposed to Hodl their bitcoin and there is understandable anxiety about incurring taxable events from spending, but setting these concerns aside for a minute, let's examine the business opportunity for driving merchant loyalty on bitcoin rails instead of fiat rails. What changes? It's no exaggeration to say that bitcoin utterly transformers the value proposition to deliver outsized economic surplus never before seen, with efficiency and use cases that fiat can never match.

Costs

The provision of any fiat merchant offers program is an expensive undertaking, requiring a significant and complex tech stack and a team of people to: credentialize participating merchants, confirm merchant contract, assign offers to cardholders subject to forecasted marketing budgets, detect qualifying spend events, reward redeeming cardholders with statement credits, compile reporting for merchants to show program efficacy, and reconcile billing. Most importantly, all of the consumer spending is driven on the most expensive payments channel (to the merchant); credit card.

Bitcoin rails drop a significant number of steps in this process. Merchants could participate in a model more akin to Google Adwords via a self-service portal credentializing via commitment of bitcoin to fund the marketing budget in real time (which can also be deprecated in real time too - never possible in fiat offer programs). The bank and card processor are no longer involved as gatekeepers in the end-to-end solution; they, and their associated costs/fees, are dropped from the value chain altogether. Most importantly, the redeeming-transactions are all now driven on low cost Lightning Network rails, stripping out not just the direct credit card fee costs (typically 3% or higher) but also the indirect costs of chargebacks and fraud.

New paradigms

Fiat rails mean that consumers who participate in their bank's merchant offer program typically do not receive any notification at the point-of-sale that they successfully got their discount, and the discount itself doesn't show up as a statement credit until days later. A bank can invest in a real-time-notification offer-redemption solution but it's prohibitively expensive and complex to do so, and has to be done on a bank-by-bank basis; very few do this, and there is no universal protocol to be leveraged.

Merchant funding of the fiat offers has to happen in advance via pre-funding of a committed budget, or payment is chased down with the typical '30 days' type credit agreement, supported by contractual obligations.

Bitcoin rails completely upend these legacy frameworks. Consumers can not only receive notification in real-time at the point-of-sale when they take advantage of a bitcoin-native offer, to get that visceral peace-of-mind, but they receive the discount in real time too. Not only that, but 'split payments' is supported by technology like LN Bits and Bolt 12, where the bitcoin-native offer provider/company can also get paid in real time at the same point-of-sale event. This essentially makes the fiat 'billing' step obsolete. Merchants can also change the offer values, minimum spend thresholds and most importantly the inventory of remaining offers/discounts (the marketing budget) they want to commit to, in real time; such changes are impossible via the fiat channels which requires budget commitment weeks in advance. I'm only scratching the surface of the long list of unfair advantages bitcoin brings to the table in the provision of a merchant offers program, but I'll leave it there, for now.

Caveats

Reach: An offer program is essentially a two-sided market and it's important to have as large an audience of consumers as possible to make merchant participation worthwhile. The bitcoiner audience, and what I call the 'bitcoin-curious' audience, are still relatively small segments, though growing.

Targeting: Fiat merchant offer programs have a silver bullet that is currently unavailable on bitcoin, at least directly; transaction history of the consumer. This history enables the merchant to carefully spend their marketing budget on specific consumer segments like new, lapsed and loyal groups. This is an invaluable tool to ensure highest return on advertising spend (ROAS) and also enables insightful before-vs-after test vs. control 'incrementality' reporting, proving spend lift of the marketing campaign that is highly convincing and useful to merchants who need to justify spending money on the offer campaigns.

That said, I'd argue that these caveats are mitigated by the potential for merchants to attract the bitcoiner segment, even broadly and in an untargeted way, as the segment is so valuable; skewing affluent, influential and maniacally loyal to bitcoiner-friendly merchants.There is a first-mover advantage for any merchant in their vertical/category to attract this invaluable segment first.

The above is an example of how bitcoin strips out costs from the legacy system, like never before, unlocking much higher margins for merchants, and delivering a more immediate, visceral and satisfying consumer experience. This long list of unfair advantages delivered by bitcoin-native merchant offers cannot be copied by any competitor operating on fiat rails. This is based on my last ten years experience working on CLO merchant loyalty programs.

Michael Saylor says to "Buy bitcoin, and wait". For many of us bitcoiners, we have the opportunity to not just 'wait' but to proactively help drive hyperbitcoinization. I'm taking this step with merchant offers, leveraging my expertise and experience to bring bitcoin-native offers to life. I'm curious about what dramatic cost savings and new, unique use cases other bitcoiners can uncover by reflecting on their fiat mining job experience and expertise, reimagining it through the lens of bitcoin.

This is a guest post by John McCabe. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.


Source: Merchant Loyalty Competitive Advantage - Reimagined Through Bitcoin
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