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Jun 14, 2024, 01:14 am

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51
Forex / PBOC is expected to set the US...
Last post by forex4you - Jun 12, 2024, 08:03 am
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2558 - Reuters estimate

People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.

How the process works:

  • Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day's trading.
  • The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.
  • Intervention: If the yuan's value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency's value.


                This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Source: PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2558 - Reuters estimate

forexlive.com
52
Forex / Treasurer Chalmers says visit ...
Last post by forex4you - Jun 12, 2024, 08:03 am
Treasurer Chalmers says visit of China's Premier Li to Australia an important opportunity

Australian Treasurer Chalmers remarks:

  • visit of China's Premier Li to Australia an important opportunity
  • says he sees underlying weakness in China's economy
  • Says China's economy won't be recovering immediately
  • says Australia's economy is not going to experience stagflation
  • calls for quicker moderation of inflation

Not sure what Chalmers "calls for quicker moderation of inflation" means. Inflation doesn't listen to politicians.

Anyway, yeah, China's Premier is visiting New Zealand and Australia this week.



                This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Source: Treasurer Chalmers says visit of China's Premier Li to Australia an important opportunity

forexlive.com
53
Forex / Japan PPI (May) +0.7% m/m (exp...
Last post by forex4you - Jun 12, 2024, 08:03 am
Japan PPI (May) +0.7% m/m (expected +0.4) and +2.4% y/y (expected +2.0%)

The data shows a big jump for PPI both m/m and y/y. If it translates into higher consumer level inflation the Bank of Japan will be happy.

USD/JPY has dipped down to circa 157.08 as I am updating.

---

The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI)

  • its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output
  • is calculated by the Bank of Japan

Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the price change that consumers see for a basket of goods and services, the CGPI focuses on the change in the prices of goods sold by companies.

The PPI reflects some of cost pressures faced by producers

  • its based on a basket of goods that represents the range of products produced within the Japanese economy, including items such as:
    • raw materials like metals and chemicals
    • semi-finished goods
    • and finished products
    • different weights are assigned to each category within the index based on its contribution to the overall economy.
  • it does not account for the quality improvements in goods and services over time, which might lead to overestimation of inflation
    • additionally, it reflects only the prices of domestically produced goods, leaving out the impact of imported goods

The PPI can be used as a guide to inflationary pressures in the economy:

  • If producers are facing higher costs, they may pass these on to consumers, leading to higher consumer prices.


                This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Source: Japan PPI (May) +0.7% m/m (expected +0.4) and +2.4% y/y (expected +2.0%)

forexlive.com
54
Forex / Apex Trader Funding / Rithmic ...
Last post by forex4you - Jun 12, 2024, 08:03 am
Apex Trader Funding / Rithmic users - it looks like the fix is in

Update, moving this to the top of the post. If you've lost money due to the outage Apex says they'll make that right:

If you are a user of Apex Trader Funding (ATF), as I know many are, you may very well have experienced outages this week (and other times!). Its been an issue with Rithmic, but it looks like progress have been made and the repair is nearly complete.

From the Discord (in summary, there is more there on treatment of failed accounts while the service was malfunctioning):

  • Please close your connections to rTrader/NT8 or whichever platform you use to connect to your Rithmic data feed. While we are working on the rollback you will not be able to login. Please wait for an update as to when you can log back in.
  • Due to Rithmic applying the fix as we speak, trading for all Rithmic users will be halted until fully complete to ensure the process is as fast and smooth as possible. You will not be able to log in your rtrader in the meantime.

There is also an update at the ATF website, login and check out the Help page for this.

The Rithmic outage impacted other firms too, hopefully all will be back to normal soon.



                This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Source: Apex Trader Funding / Rithmic users - it looks like the fix is in

forexlive.com
55
Forex / UBS says EUR/USD heading as hi...
Last post by forex4you - Jun 12, 2024, 08:03 am
UBS says EUR/USD heading as high as 1.11 after short term political headwinds dissipate

Via a UBS Global Wealth Management note, forecasting EUR/USD to 1.09 by the end of this year and 1.11 by March 2025.

Citing

  • political uncertainty could prove a near-term headwind for the euro

But following this:

  • an improving growth outlook should help later this year

The political uncertainty UBS is referring to is the snap election called for France on Sunday:

Its been on the slide ever since early Monday ... actually since Friday's NFP:



                This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Source: UBS says EUR/USD heading as high as 1.11 after short term political headwinds dissipate

forexlive.com
56
Forex / BlackRock's Rick Rieder still ...
Last post by forex4you - Jun 12, 2024, 08:03 am
BlackRock's Rick Rieder still expects a Fed rate cut in September, but conviction not high

Rick Rieder is BlackRock's chief investment officer of global fixed income. He spoke with Dow Jones / Market Watch in an interview ahead of today's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Like many, he expects the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), its "dot plot", to show two rate cuts expected in 2024, down from 3 projected at the March SEP update. Redier does add, though, that 2 is a "very close call', saying FOMC members are mixed in the outlooks, and only 1 cut in the projections is possible.

Reider expects the market is likely to "react moderately positively" to projections for two rate cuts

  • yet "still with a skeptical eye as to whether they will really be able to get that done"
  • will probably view such a projection as "aspirational on the part of the Fed"
  • will question whether "they have enough time to get the two cuts in" this year

Given the statements we've had from Fed officials prior to the blackout, wanting to see a run of lower inflation data before cutting, I think Reider is correct on 'is there enough time?' question on 2 cuts for the remainder of this year.

Further out:


  • "I think the first cut would come in September"
  • "the conviction around it happening can't be that high"
  • sees the longer-run rate may "ultimately head to above 3%", citing deglobalization and spending in areas such as artificial intelligence and infrastructure as creating some stickiness in inflation that leads that rate higher

On Powell's presser:

  • "I don't think [Powell] is going to be dovish in the press conference"
  • believes Powell will "say we can wait longer" to cut rates

Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's press conference due on Wednesday, 12 June 2024

  • at 1400 and 1430 US Eastern time respectively (1800 and 1830 GMT)

are US CPI data for May 2024.

  • due at 0830 US Eastern time (1230 GMT)

Goldman Sachs forecasts US May Headline CPI @ 3.4% y/y, core 3.5%



                This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Source: BlackRock's Rick Rieder still expects a Fed rate cut in September, but conviction not high

forexlive.com
57
Forex / HSBC says hawkish risk around ...
Last post by forex4you - Jun 12, 2024, 08:03 am
HSBC says hawkish risk around the FOMC, but buy the dip when it comes

HSBC on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting today, Wednesday, 12 June 2024

  • Analysts at the bank say there is some hawkish risk around this meeting
  • Expect any subsequent rates volatility is unlikely to "spike to levels from last year, let alone from 2022"
  • And thus any weakness in risk assets "to be both short-lived and shallow"
  • Providng a pretty good tacticalentry point back into risk assets

It's a busy US Wednesday ahead. Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's press conference due on Wednesday, 12 June 2024

  • at 1400 and 1430 US Eastern time respectively (1800 and 1830 GMT)

are US CPI data for May 2024.

  • due at 0830 US Eastern time (1230 GMT)


                This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Source: HSBC says hawkish risk around the FOMC, but buy the dip when it comes

forexlive.com
58
Forex / PIMCO expects more US regional...
Last post by forex4you - Jun 12, 2024, 08:03 am
PIMCO expects more US regional bank failures: "The real wave of distress is just starting"

Bloomberg (gated) had this report that has seemed to slip by a little too quietly. Bloomberg interviewed Pimco's head of global private commercial real estate team.

Pacific Investment Management Co (PIMCO) expects more regional bank failures in the US because of a "very high" concentration of troubled commercial real estate loans on their books:



  • "The real wave of distress is just starting" for lenders to everything from malls to offices
  • high borrowing costs have hammered valuations and triggered defaults
  • leaving lenders stuck with assets that are tough to sell
  • larger banks have been disposing of some of their higher quality assets first to avoid deeper losses ...

    "As stressed loans grow due to maturities, however, we expect that banks will start selling these more challenged loans to reduce their troubled loan exposures"

The link to Bloomberg is here if you can access it. If you don't have access to Bloomberg and this scary report I guess the best thing to do is just buy more Nvidia? Seems to have worked regardless of everything else so far (me with the kiss of death for NVDA ;-) )



                This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Source: PIMCO expects more US regional bank failures: "The real wave of distress is just starting"

forexlive.com
59
Forex / NZD/USD loses traction below 0...
Last post by forex4you - Jun 12, 2024, 08:03 am
NZD/USD loses traction below 0.6150, focus on US CPI, Fed rate decision

The NZD/USD pair snaps the two-day winning streak around 0.6140 on Wednesday during the early Asian session.

Source: NZD/USD loses traction below 0.6150, focus on US CPI, Fed rate decision
60
Forex / USD/JPY extends upside on firm...
Last post by forex4you - Jun 12, 2024, 08:03 am
USD/JPY extends upside on firmer US Dollar, all eyes on US CPI, Fed rate decision

The USD/JPY pair extends the rally near 157.15 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday.

Source: USD/JPY extends upside on firmer US Dollar, all eyes on US CPI, Fed rate decision
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