Started by PocketOption, Feb 15, 2023, 11:44 am
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Major European stocks turned green after a subdued start, awaiting the opening of Wall Street cash. Currently, the Dax advanced 0.49%, the Cac40 0.85% and the Eurostoxx 0.75%.
However, investors remain cautious, waiting to see the US inflation figure released tomorrow. In fact, a decline on an annual basis but an increase on a monthly basis is expected. Should inflation take the markets by surprise and prove to be higher than expected, we could see new temporary sell-offs in the main asset classes and a rise in the dollar.
Meanwhile, the European Commission updated the growth estimates in its winter forecast this morning. In particular, it revised its growth estimates, explaining that the Union should avoid the technical recession that was previously forecast. In addition, it revised its inflation estimates, stating that inflation is expected to stand at 6.4 % in 2023 and then move closer to the target in 2024 (where it is seen at 2.8 %). The committee reiterated, however, that uncertainties remain many, starting with the developments in the war in e and ending with the development of commodity prices, which have been the biggest driver of the decline in inflation in recent months. Indeed, the danger is that another rise in energy prices could lead to new spikes in inflation, especially considering that core inflation has not yet peaked.
Elsewhere, WTI looks set to continue its run after a beautiful pullback around a crucial daily support (78.80$) to aim for a new stretch above $80 per barrel.
Regarding the macroeconomic calendar, no significant data will be released today, as anticipated in this morning’s analysis.
The EURUSD posted a series of higher highs this morning. However, the pair is still below the most important intraday resistance area, the W-1 POC, so the setup remains mostly unchanged. In contrast, the most critical intraday support area is the uncovered POC around the 1.0633 mark. From a technical point of view, as long as prices remain below the resistance, the most likely scenario is a continuation of the downtrend to target the uncovered POC. A breakout of the 1.0633 mark could lead prices to the main support area below, between the 1.0589 and 1.0563 marks. On the other hand, a short-term inversion could occur if prices retrieve the intraday resistance. In this case, the target could be the upper resistance, the W-1 VAH.
Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern: 1.0633, 1.0589-1.0563.
Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern: 1.07, 1.0730, 1.0773.
The S&P500 retrieve the most significant intraday resistance (now support), the W-1 VAL, and is now pulling back on that level. As long as prices remain above that area, the most likely scenario is a continuation of the rise toward the W-1 POC. On the flip side, a breakout of the support (and of the weaker support around the 4093 mark) could lead prices toward the LVN and the W-3 VAH.
Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern: 4097-4093, 4079, 4067.
Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern: 4114, 4145.
POC= Point of ControlVAH= Value Area HighVAL= Value Area LowLVN= Low Volume NodeHVN= High Volume NodeW-1= last weekW-2= two weeks agoW-3= three weeks agoD-1= yesterdayD-2= two days agoD-3= three days ago
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