Started by PocketOption, Jan 29, 2023, 03:03 pm
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Most European indices trade slightly lower this Wednesday ahead of the US session, despite relatively good data arriving in the morning from the EU and the UK. Currently, the Dax gives up 0.33%, the Cac40 0.28% and the Eurostoxx 0.44%.
This morning the leading market movers were the UK PPI and the German Ifo Business Climate Change. The former were below expectations and thus confirmed a slight cooling of inflation (on the production side), but certainly not enough data to make the BOE think of a possible and immediate change in monetary policy. On the other hand, the second confirmed expectations at 90.2. It returned to values not seen since last June, indicating that an improvement in the country’s economy is generally expected within six months.
Elsewhere, in Australia, the CPI figure was released above expectations for both the quarterly (1.9% vs 1.6%) and annual (7.8% vs 7.5%) figures, confirming that inflationary problems are present in all the world’s major economies and that it is still too early for many central banks to talk about pivots. In this case, the figure is at its highest since 1990, and the market has understood that the RBA is preparing for another rate hike at its next meeting in February.
Elsewhere, WTI resumed its decline (-1.83% yesterday), mainly because investors are seeing a continued and unexpected increase in US crude oil stocks. This sometimes seems to outweigh the hope that reopenings in China will quickly lead to a rise in oil demand from the Asian giant.
Regarding the macroeconomic calendar, following the BoC interest rate decision (a 25 bp hike is expected) and crude oil stocks during the day will be essential.
The EURUSD posted multiple bullish patterns yesterday within the most crucial intraday support area, between the W-1 VAH and the 1.0846 mark. As for today, the most significant support area remains the same, while the most crucial resistance area is the current weekly VAH. From a technical standpoint, as long as prices stay above the support, the most likely scenario is a continuation of the rise toward the resistance. On the flip side, a breakout of the support could lead prices to lower supports, the W-1 POC and eventually the W-1 VAL.
Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern: 1.0859-1.0846, 1.0830-1.0822, 1.0806.
Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern: 1.0891, 1.0945.
The S&P500 is trading in a very critical area. The most important intraday support is the area around the 3978 mark. In contrast, the most significant intraday resistance is between the W-2 VAH and the W-1 POC. However, prices have probably to retrieve the 3987 mark (dashed blue line on the chart) to reverse the current short-term bearish trend. In this case, the index could reach the resistance again and eventually the W-1 VAH. On the other hand, a breakout of the support could lead the S&P toward the W-2 POC.
Main intraday support areas where to look for long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern or short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern: 3978, 3947, 3924.
Main intraday resistances areas where to look for short trades in case of a bearish candlestick pattern or long trades in case of a bullish candlestick pattern: 3987, 3999-4003, 4018, 4037.
POC= Point of ControlVAH= Value Area HighVAL= Value Area LowLVN= Low Volume NodeHVN= High Volume NodeW-1= last weekW-2= two weeks agoW-3= three weeks agoD-1= yesterdayD-2= two days agoD-3= three days ago
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