JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 25-11-2022

[PocketOption]

JASPER'S MARKET SQUAWK 25-11-2022

Pound Hit August High Despite Holiday Mood

Thursday saw light trading due to US markets being closed for Thanksgiving. The pound managed to crawl higher after BOE members pointed at further tightening.

Friday's session isn't expected to be much different as the US will have an early close with most participants out for an extended weekend.

Key factors for today:

• GBP/USD continues its ascend to record a 3rd day in the green


• ECB minutes support a 75bps hike and show further accommodation


• German 30 index spikes to June high after hopeful Ifo data


• Oil crawls higher while the EU tries to agree on price cap price


• Covid in China continues to worsen, raising concerns

Cable hit August high after 0.60% gain

BOE's Dave Ramsden and Huw Pill spoke yesterday, suggesting bias in favour of tightening. Pill pointed to tightness in the labour market and recent trends in energy prices, whereas Ramsend suggested inflation would come down quicker next year. He said the impact of policy on inflation isn’t seen until 18 to 24 months later. Cable hit $1.2150 before receding closer to $1.21 for the close, recording the 3rd consecutive session in gains.

ECB Minutes showed a more hawkish tone

Most members backed the 75bps hike and saw rates as still accommodative. Chief Economist Lane underscored the importance of maintaining credibility in bringing inflation down to target.

Euro advanced to $1.0450 from a combination of expectations that the ECB would be more aggressive and US yields drifting lower through the muted session. It closed Thursday closer to $1.040, though.

Also, German Ifo Business Climate came in above expectations, and the back month was revised higher. The good news pushed Germany's 30 index to a June high after closing ~1% higher at 14500.

Oil drifted 0.75% higher

The EU disagreed on a price cap, reportedly with Poland and Baltic countries insisting on a $30/bbl cap, below the $65-70/bbl that had been discussed. They point to the initial proposed price cap above the production cost in . The discussions are expected to resume today. WTI closed 0.75%, leaving an inside bar in the rear mirror view.

Covid problem in China deepens

China reported the highest number of covid cases since the pandemic’s start. Press speculated, given recent measures imposed in Beijing, that the capital was headed for another lockdown. Chinese media also suggested the PBOC would lower the reserve requirement ratio for all banks and called for more spending.

Movers/shakers

• Reminder: US cash equity markets closed


• Michelmersh Brick +12% after posting a trading update, launching a £3.0M share buyback and acquiring Fabspeed Holdings


• Elior +11% after Derichebourg confirmed press speculation the two companies were discussing options to partner or merge unit


• Adevinta +7% after earnings beat expectations and affirmed outlook


• LEG Immobilien +7% after Morgan Stanley upgraded rating to overweight


• Advance Gas -6% despite beating estimates, but average TCE rate fell by 10% q/q

On the docket

• German GDP growth rate is expected to show a 0.3% expansion


• ECB's Jochnick and Guindos speak


• Mexico releases GDP and economic activity figures

The post JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 25-11-2022 appeared first on Key To Markets Blog.

Source: JASPER'S MARKET SQUAWK 25-11-2022