JASPER’S MARKET SQUAWK 22-11-2022

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JASPER'S MARKET SQUAWK 22-11-2022

Dollar gains for 3rd consecutive session

The US Dollar ticked higher across the board again, adding pressure to fx and commodity assets as it recorded a 3rd consecutive session on the rise. Euro, yen and gold were mostly impacted.

Key factors for today:

• USD/JPY continues to ascend as the dollar goes bullish


• Crude pulls full recovery after production hike rumours get dismissed


• Rail workers on strike if White House fails to renegotiate contract terms


• ECB speakers primarily hawkish in a quiet week for euro

USD/JPY up for 4th session, sends gold 0.80% down

The greenback rose for a third consecutive session on Monday on risk aversion from potential rail strikes, covid cases in China surging and renewed tensions in e. The US index rose to 108.00, an 11-day high, as the yield curve inversion touched the lowest level since 1988 last week.

USD/JPY spiked 1.25% to 142.25, adding to its bullish strike, while gold continued its downward spiral, now 2.75% below its November peak at $1787/oz.

Crude whipsaws 6% lower before brave recovery

WTI crude hit a 10-month low at $76.00/bbl following unconfirmed reports that OPEC was considering a 0.5M bbl/day hike in production at the December meeting. The rumour was later denied by Saudi Arabia, sending oil prices back to the open at $80.00/bbl where they are seen as stable. $82.50/bbl remains a short-term ceiling.

Some US Rail Workers vote to strike

One of the two largest train unions in the US who were expected to vote on a White House contract Monday voted against, seeking renegotiation. Under the current agreement, no strike action is expected before December 9th. The last time rail workers went on a strike in the early 90s, where Congress had companies pay workers to get them to return to work. Some shipments would start to be shut down as early as Dec 4th.

ECB keeps signalling further tightening, but the euro declined 0.80%

ECB’s Holzmann of Austria said that if things didn’t change from now to the meeting, he would support a 75bps hike. Vasle of Slovenia reiterated the position to keep hiking and ECB Chief Economist Lane said that December would not be the last hike and that it was too early to consider a pause. However, the euro has already been under pressure on a stronger dollar, it reached $1.0240 instead. $1.0340 is resistance, with further slides aiming at $1.02 and $1.01.

Movers/shakers

• Disney +6% brings back former CEO Bob Iger for two years while finding a new CEO, replaces Bob Chapek


• Tesla -7% on rumours would implement another price cut in China due to stalling sales


• Steris +7% after Sotera Health wins a favourable verdict in ethylene oxide emissions suit


• Estee Lauder -6% in price action dealers, attributed to consumer situation in China


• Intel -3% after an unexpected drop in Taiwan export orders after several semiconductor firms warned of weakness in sales

On the docket

• EA consumer confidence might add or take away from ECB hawkishness


• Will Fed's Mester, George and Bullard reiterate the recent rate narrative?


• API crude could move oil a little ahead of EIA


• Baidu, Best buy, Manchester United, and Abercrombie & Fitch report earnings

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