Bitcoin Could Crash n Ruble

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Bitcoin Could Crash n Ruble

Bitcoin Could Crash n Ruble

The bullish outlook appears as the n central bank tightens capital controls on its citizens, including a prohibition on using rubles to purchase US dollars. Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped by around 30% since reaching a high of 5.8 million rubles per token on March 9. Nonetheless, suppose a classic bullish continuation pattern plays out. In that case, the drop above could be an excuse for traders to dump another large stash of the n national currency.

The pattern is known as an “ascending triangle”. It appears when the price consolidates between a rising lower trendline (support) and a flat upper trendline. It completes when the price breaks out of the consolidation range in the direction of the previous trend, with the price aiming for levels with a length equal to the maximum distance between the triangle’s upper and lower trendlines.

Since January 2021, BTC’s price against the ruble has been trending inside a similar structure, as shown in the chart. It closed above the triangle’s upper trendline, rising more than 20% to an all-time high of 5.88 million rubles.

Nonetheless, BTC corrected to test the range’s resistance as support; this is common after breakouts as traders seek confirmation of the pattern with more upside.

If this is the case, the likelihood of a rebound and continued rise to 11 million rubles, a nearly 140 percent increase, appears high in the future.

’s Capital Controls

The technical bullish outlook for the BTC/RUB market also coincides with an ongoing exodus from n assets since ’s invasion of e, as western nations have collaborated to sever the country’s ties to the global banking system.

As a result, trading on the Moscow Exchange will not operate until further notice. Similarly, shares of -backed companies have suffered in the international market. An MSCI index is tracking their exchange-traded funds; it reported a nearly 78 percent outflow since the invasion began on February 24.

March 7, the ruble had fallen by more than 50% year to date against the US dollar since  defaulted on its debt in 1998. The n central bank intervened with a series of capital control measures, including a six-month ban on foreign currency sales.

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