Started by analysis.hotforex.com, forexegitimkitabi.com, binaryoptiontrader.info, Feb 15, 2022, 06:29 am
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Stock markets crushed into close Friday (NASDAQ -2.78%), Asia lower too (Nikkei -2.2%) and European FUTS down -1.92%. Oil at new 7-yr high, Yields & Gold cool a tad, USD & JPY bid, NZD clobbered. Key FED hawk Bullard called for 1% hike over next 3 meetings, 72% chance of 50bps in March on Friday cooled to 38% today. Daly – danger of moving too fast. e asks for meeting with within 48hrs, Biden: possible fake invasion pretext as early as Tuesday/Wednesday, most foreign nationals advised to leave, – a possibly pivotal week ahead.
Economic Week Ahead – Closed FED meet today – possible move on discount rate, (the rate the FED lends to banks) but not the main Fed Funds rate (the rate banks lend to each other). Top of the week – FED Minutes (Wednesday) supported by more global inflation and Retail Sales data.
Overnight – NZD inflation much firmer than expected (+2.7% vs 0.6%), Business outlook weaker, CHF PPI 3 x higher than expected.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future has rallied 99 ticks, with yields set to slide at the open as European bourses prepare for a decisive week over the e conflict with . Treasuries are underperforming and the US 10-year rate has already backed up 2.1 bp this morning, suggesting that the likely rally in bonds may not last too long. The same delayed reaction is likely in stocks. ECB head Lagarde is set to speak in the afternoon and will likely to continue to try and balance the need to acknowledge inflation risks, with a cautious tone, designed to keep markets from running away with the tightening story.
Today - Fed Closed Board Meeting, Fed's Bullard, ECB's Lagarde, German-ian meeting. Earnings Michelin, AvisBudget Group
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.45%) Volatility continues from over 1.7200 last week to 1.7020 Friday to 1.7100 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram at 0 line, RSI 49.50, H1 ATR 0.0027 Daily ATR 0.0130.
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