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BlackRock Investment Institute have a very downbeat outlook on global stock markets.

On the US:

• We are underweight. Financial cracks are emerging from Fed rate hikes. We don't think earnings expectations reflect the recession we see ahead.

On Europe:

• We are underweight. The impact of higher interest rates and elevated inflation pose a challenge for earnings, even as the energy shock fades.

On the UK:

• We are underweight. Earnings expectations don't fully reflect the economic damage we see ahead.

I posted earlier on the firm's CEO's outlook, he sees as many as 4 more Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hikes to come:

• BlackRock CEO Fink says inflation remains sticky, expects at least two more Fed rate hikes

                This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Jibun / S&P Global final manufacturing PMI from Japan for May 2023 comes in at 50.6, much improved from April:

• preliminary was 50.8,  prior 49.5
• 50.6 is the first move into expansion in 7 months

Good results from Japan.

From the report:

• The latest au Jibun Bank PMI survey highlights a decisive turnaround in manufacturing sector performance during May and brings to an end a six-month period of weakening business conditions.
• A recovery in economic conditions at home helped to lift client spending, which offset another month of subdued demand in key export markets. Moreover, the rebound in total new orders was achieved against a backdrop of customer destocking as global supply chains normalise and less cautious inventory strategies take hold.
• Supplier performance improved for the first time since January 2020, which helped to boost business confidence and bring down purchase price inflation across the Japanese manufacturing sector in May. The latest overall rise in input prices was the weakest for just over two years. Hopes of a reduced squeeze on operating margins, alongside rising confidence regarding the broader economic outlook, underpinned the strongest output growth expectations among manufacturing firms since the start of 2022.

USD/JPY dipped earlier but has rebounded:

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Flash readings here:

• Japan preliminary PMI for May: Manufacturing 50.8 (prior 49.5), Services 56.3 (prior 55.4)

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Out at the same time was the South Korea Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (May), at 48.4 for the 11th straight month in contraction.

• from 48.1 in April

                This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Earlier on oil:

• Private oil survey data shows large headline crude build vs a draw expected
• WTI crude oil futures settles at $68.09
• Barclays cuts its 2023 Brent forecast to US$87/bbl (from $92) & 2024 to US$89 (from $97)
• Re oil - Warren Buffett bought more Occidental shares

ANZ say that oil market's sentiment was hit by the PMI from China yesterday indicating the country's weak economic rebound. Concerns that the post-COVID bounce has petered out. Also overnight data showing US employment vacancies unexpectedly increased. Strong employment statistics typically signals an increase in oil demand from consumers.

Analysts at ANZ go on to say that there is speculation that OPEC will intervene to support prices as a result of the crude selloff. But ANZ are not anticipating the June 4 OPEC meeting will bring output cuts, but bullish rhetoric is likely to persist. OPEC will be watching to see how the existing production agreement and the expansion of Chinese demand will develop.

                This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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