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Oil jumps on disruption fears

Crude prices have slingshot higher as 's turmoil will worsen and likely lead to severe supply disruptions for oil markets.  The oil market is very vulnerable to a major shortage of supplies now that OPEC+ has ratified a humble supply hike.  With oil prices likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future, the only thing that will send prices down is if demand destruction becomes noticeable.  For every USD 10 increase in oil, that will take off 20 basis points in GDP.  If we have another 10-20% move higher with oil prices that could finally put an end to the relentless surge higher with oil prices.

Gold

Gold prices tumbled after the Kremlin said a n delegation will be ready to continue talks today. After rallying above the USD 1950 level, gold prices spiked lower to USD 1916 before stabilizing above the USD 1930 region. Demand for safe-havens will remain elevated as this is likely the very early stages of the -e war.  Despite all the headlines about a continuation of talks, the Kyiv Mayor has noted that  is gathering forces closer to Kyiv. Gold will remain very sensitive to incremental updates but should still see a strong move higher as geopolitical tensions and growth concerns will not be going away anytime soon.