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Eyes are on US House Republicans who are trying to pass a Republican-only bill to avoid a government shutdown when the calendar turns.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will try to win approval of four larger bills, including funding for the military and homeland security, that he could then parlay into a short-term funding bill.

Rep. Graves said Republicans are considering a stopgap government funding measure that
would range from 14 to 60 days.

The problem is that some far-right Republicans want deep spending cuts and have shown no sign of compromise. That may for Republicans into a bipartisan compromise. However some Republicans are warning they could try to strip McCarthy of the Speakership if he tries to work with Democrats.

In terms of markets, a one-week shutdown would be largely immaterial for markets but if it were to approach a month there would be measurable economic impacts.

                This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There was some speculation that France would get involved in restoring Niger's government after the recent coup but instead they have pulled out. France will end military cooperation and has recalled its ambassador.

Niger is the world's 22nd largest country but it's extremely poor and has an extraordinarily young population and has the world's highest fertility rate. Its population of 25 million is growing rapidly.

                This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

MUFG maintains a short GBP/CAD targeting a move towards 1.63, with stop at 1.07050. MUFG also maintains a long USD/SEK targeting a move towards 11.450, with a stop at 10.650.

"We are maintaining our short GBP/CAD trade idea. The trade recommendation got off to a good start this week resulting in GBP/CAD breaking further below the 200-day moving average at around 1.6735," MUFG notes.

"We are maintaining our long USD/SEK trade idea. It has been a volatile week for the SEK but recent developments are not sufficient to alter our outlook for the SEK to weaken further in the near-term," MUFG adds.

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.

                This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

RBC Capital Markets, reports an almost unanimous consensus against any change in policy parameters in the upcoming BoJ meeting early Friday. Surprisingly, despite muted expectations and persistent trends, analysts remain bullish on JPY.

Key Points:

1. Muted Expectations for Change:
   • After the surprise widening of the YCC band in July, there is a consensus for no change in any policy parameters in the next announcement.
   • Only four out of 46 respondents expect a policy change in the remainder of this calendar year, with April 2024 being the most anticipated month for a change.
   • Eleven analysts do not expect any further policy changes this year or the next.
2. Continued Bullish Outlook on JPY:
   • Despite the response to the July policy shift and the continual rally of USD/JPY, analysts maintain a bullish stance on JPY, a stance RBC finds slightly surprising given the circumstances.

Analysis:

• For Forex Traders:
  • JPY Positions: Traders should observe the market sentiment closely, considering the bullish outlook on JPY amidst seemingly stable BoJ policies.
• For Policy Analysts:
  • Policy Stability: Analysts should consider the implications of the stable policy outlook on the broader economic landscape and currency markets.
• For Investors:
  • Market Dynamics: Investors should factor in the persistent bullish sentiment on JPY and the lack of anticipated policy shifts when making investment decisions.

The Takeaway: The BoJ meeting scheduled for early Friday is surrounded by consensus expectations of policy stability, with minimal anticipation of changes this year or the next. However, the prevailing bullish sentiment on JPY, despite such stability and the ongoing USD/JPY rally, is a notable factor for market participants to consider in their analysis and strategy development.

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.

                This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The AUD/USD pair gains traction during the early Asian session on Monday. The rebound of the pair is bolstered by the weakness of the US Dollar (USD)

The GBP/USD pair is seen oscillating in a narrow trading band during the Asian session on Monday and consolidating its recent losses to the lowest lev

Bank of France President Francois Villeroy de Galhau spoke in a weekend interview that he is in no rush to raise rates further after hiking to 4.00% l

US consumer spending continues to defy expectations for it to falter in the face of the US central bank's stiff interest rate increases. Minneapolis F

Member of the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) monetary policy committee, Liu Shijin spoke at the annual Bund Summit conference in Shanghai. He stated

Gold price recovers its recent losses near $1,924 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of t