Paxos, a provider of blockchain and tokenization infrastructure, has recently received preliminary approvals from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) of Abu Dhabi. The company stated that these endorsements are crucial steps for Paxos, enabling it to issue stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar and introduce crypto brokerage and custodial services in the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM).
These preliminary approvals mark Paxos’s significant venture into the rapidly evolving digital asset sector in the Middle East, the company explained on Wednesday. Paxos is set to operate under two regulated frameworks within the ADGM, pending final confirmation. In addition, Paxos has expressed its dedication to ensuring its custody and digital asset infrastructure services are fully compliant with FSRA’s stringent regulations.
"Today's announcement marks yet another milestone in Paxos' ability to provide billions of users with safe and trusted digital asset services,” Walter Hessert Paxos’s head of strategy detailed on Wednesday in the press announcement sent to Bitcoin.com News.
Hessert added:
Our IPAs from the FSRA, on the heels of our IPA from the Monetary Authority of Singapore, solidify our commitment to pursuing international growth through regulated frameworks.
A significant number of companies have recently been extending their operations into the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Dubai, and the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM). In mid-September, the FSRA, ADGM’s financial watchdog, introduced six guiding principles to shape its strategy for regulating and supervising virtual assets.
Subsequent to these regulatory developments, Pyypl, a fintech company based in Abu Dhabi, secured $20 million in Series B funding, while the bitcoin mining company Phoenix Group announced its oversubscribed initial public offering (IPO). Paxos has stated that it now adheres to the regulatory standards of New York, Singapore, and ADGM.
"Blockchain technology is revolutionizing the global financial system to be more open, secure, and innovative," Hessert concluded.
What are your thoughts on this story? Let us know what you think in the comments section below.
In the wake of Kyberswap, a decentralized exchange (dex) platform, suffering a $47 million loss due to a cyberattack, the perpetrator indicated a readiness to engage in negotiations. Yet, despite expressing an openness to resolution, the hacker lamented encountering primarily "received (mostly) threats, deadlines, and general unfriendliness." They warned that if such hostility persists, the Kyberswap team might face delays in resolving the issue.
Five days ago, Kyberswap, a decentralized finance (defi) trading platform, fell victim to a cyber attack, resulting in a loss of $47 million. The team announced that its market maker, Kyberswap Elastic, had "experienced a security incident." Since the attack, they have established communication with the perpetrator, and an onchain message indicates the hacker’s openness to negotiate the return of the funds.
Yet, the hacker claims to have faced unjust treatment and warns that if such circumstances persist, the team may need to postpone the negotiations to a later date. "Dear Kyberswap executives, employees, token holders, and LPs," the hacker wrote. "I said I was willing to negotiate. In return, I have received (mostly) threats, deadlines, and general unfriendliness from the executive team. That’s ok, I don’t mind. I have prepared a statement concerning our (potential) treaty. I plan to release it on Nov. 30 at Noon UTC, sharp."
The Kyberswap attacker added:
Under the assumption that I am treated with further hostility, we can reschedule for a later date, when we all feel more civil. You need only say the word. If not, we proceed as planned on Nov. 30. Thank you.
The hacker's message gained momentum on social media platforms. One individual who circulated the message commented, "We need a professional negotiator it seems." It appears that the negotiation process hit a snag following the disclosure of the bounty’s percentage and the mentioning of potential legal consequences for failing to respond. Nevertheless, should the Kyberswap team successfully foster a cooperative atmosphere and smooth out any issues, the attacker might announce positive news on Thursday at noon UTC.
What are your thoughts on this story? Let us know what you think in the comments section below.
Economist Peter Schiff has warned that the U.S. dollar is “on the verge of a historic crash.” He stressed that there won’t be a soft landing for the U.S. economy, predicting a “crash & burn” scenario. Schiff highlighted the potential for increased inflation, rising interest rates, and elevated unemployment. “The economy is weaker than the Fed thinks and the result will be larger budget deficits and higher inflation,” he noted.
Economist and gold bug Peter Schiff is back with gloomy economic predictions in a series of posts on social media platform X. He wrote on Tuesday:
The U.S. dollar is on the verge of a historic crash. This will be a game changer for the Fed and the economy, as it will send inflation, interest rates, and unemployment soaring. Forget about a soft-landing. It’s crash & burn.
He added: "The U.S. dollar is toast. As inflation heats up, to avoid getting burned the world will turn to gold as the most viable alternative."
On Wednesday, the economist explained on X: “The U.S. economy is already in recession. Though Q3 GDP grew by 5.2%, government spending contributed 5.5%. So without that spending, GDP would’ve contracted by .3%. Government spending borrowed money doesn’t reflect real economic growth. It will only lead to higher inflation.”
In another post on Wednesday, Schiff detailed: “Bonds are rallying on the Fed’s Beige Book acknowledgment that the economy is slowing. Bond investors should be careful what they wish for.” He continued:
The economy is weaker than the Fed thinks and the result will be larger budget deficits and higher inflation.
Schiff has consistently raised concerns about the U.S. economy and the fall of the U.S. dollar. In October, he stated: “The dollar will tank, taking the U.S. economy and the American standard of living down with it.” He cautioned that individuals holding U.S. dollars would face significant losses. Furthermore, the economist has warned of the potential for a severe recession, an inflationary depression, an “unprecedented” financial crisis, and a tragic ending. In September, he said a “massive crisis” will lead to a rush to exit the U.S. dollar.
What do you think about the statements by economist Peter Schiff? Let us know in the comments section below.
Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki has recommended buying bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Warning that the global economy is slowing to a possible depression and the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve will print trillions in “fake dollars,” he urged investors: “Don't be caught sleeping like most Americans. Take action now.”
The author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, has suggested investing in bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for investors who prefer this approach over direct investment in bitcoin. Rich Dad Poor Dad is a 1997 book co-authored by Kiyosaki and Sharon Lechter. It has been on the New York Times Best Seller List for over six years. More than 32 million copies of the book have been sold in over 51 languages across more than 109 countries.
On Tuesday, Kiyosaki posted on social media platform X, expressing concern about the Cardboard Box Index, an indicator used by some investors to assess consumer goods production, which he claims is crashing. Kiyosaki stated that shoppers have ceased shopping, indicating a potential global economic downturn that could result in a depression. He anticipates that the Treasury and Federal Reserve will respond by printing trillions in fake dollars.
In response to these concerns, the renowned author recommended his usual choices of gold, silver, and bitcoin. He highlighted the rising price of gold and the relatively low cost of silver. Additionally, Kiyosaki suggested considering a bitcoin ETF as an alternative. In conclusion, he urged investors to take immediate action and avoid being caught off guard, emphasizing the need for proactive measures.
This isn’t the first instance of Kiyosaki warning about a potential depression. In July, he predicted that a depression is coming. In February, he cautioned about an impending giant crash, stating that a depression is possible. He projected that by 2025, gold would be valued at $5,000, silver at $500, and bitcoin at $500,000. Kiyosaki attributed these predictions to the anticipated loss of faith in the U.S. dollar, which he refers to as “fake money.” In his perspective, gold and silver are regarded as “God’s money,” while bitcoin is seen as “people’s money.”
Kiyosaki did not specify the type of bitcoin ETFs he recommends. In the U.S., there are futures bitcoin ETFs but the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has yet to approve a spot bitcoin ETF. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler recently revealed that the securities regulator is considering between eight and 10 spot bitcoin ETF applications. Recently, a former NYSE president said he expects money to flood into the crypto industry with spot bitcoin ETF launches. Microstrategy chairman Michael Saylor expects demand for bitcoin to double after the halving and the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs.
What do you think about the advice by Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki? Let us know in the comments section below.
Standard Chartered Bank has doubled down on its bitcoin price forecast of $100,000 next year with increased optimism on the timing. “We now expect more price upside to materialize before the halving than we previously did, specifically via the earlier-than-expected introduction of U.S. spot [bitcoin] ETFs,” the bank’s analyst described.
Standard Chartered Bank has reiterated its bitcoin price forecast of $100,000 with more price upside happening sooner than it previously predicted. In a note published Tuesday, Standard Chartered’s head of crypto research and Western emerging markets FX, Geoff Kendrick, wrote that “crypto spring has sprung.”
The analyst explained that bitcoin’s unwavering dominance in the cryptocurrency space and heightened token hoarding by miners continue to drive the asset’s upward trajectory. Bitcoin’s share of the crypto market cap rose from 45% in April to approximately 50% while its value surged by over $10,000. The price upswing has sparked renewed interest in the cryptocurrency space. Kendrick shared:
Going forward, then, we expect digital assets’ rising overall market cap to be a bigger driver of BTC price upside than a continued rise in BTC dominance within the space.
As bitcoin’s price escalates, miners are increasingly holding onto their BTC, leading to a sharp decline in mined bitcoin sales to around 80% in the fourth quarter. The upcoming Bitcoin halving in April will further reduce the supply of new bitcoin. Kendrick noted that historically, bitcoin prices peaked 12-18 months after a halving.
The bank initially forecasted a bitcoin price of $100,000 back in April, declaring that crypto winter is over and anticipating that the price could reach $100,000 by the end of 2024. In July, the bank adjusted its prediction, stating that BTC could reach $120,000 next year while emphasizing that crypto winter has ended.
The Standard Chartered analyst further explained that an unexpected positive development is unfolding on the demand side, with an increasing probability of spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Kendrick detailed:
We now expect more price upside to materialize before the halving than we previously did, specifically via the earlier-than-expected introduction of U.S. spot ETFs. This suggests a risk that the USD 100,000 level could be reached before end-2024.
Many analysts expect the SEC to approve multiple spot bitcoin ETFs next year, including one from Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler recently stated that the securities regulator is considering between eight and 10 spot bitcoin ETF applications.
What do you think about Standard Chartered Bank’s bitcoin price forecast? Let us know in the comments section below.
In a six-month roadmap unveiled on Nov. 29, the BNB Chain development team said it is targeting 10,000 transactions per second and fees of $0.001 on the layer two (L2) solution Opbnb. Sometime between 2024’s second and third quarters, the objective will be to lower the gas limit per block increase from 100M to 200M.
On Nov. 29 the BNB chain unveiled what it called a tech roadmap for Opbnb, a layer two (L2) solution within its ecosystem. The goal of the roadmap is to make “blockchain more accessible, with the design principles based on making the Opbnb network more efficient for users and developers.” To achieve this, the roadmap is targeting 10,000 TPS (transactions per second) for transfers as well as “a price reduction of ten times on Opbnb.”
The unveiling of the six-month roadmap came just days after the transaction count on Opbnb tapped a new all-time high of 5.47 million. This milestone was achieved when “the network handled the full capacity of 100M gas per second smoothly in a single block.” This is said to have resulted in the network processing 645 minting transactions per second.
Meanwhile, in a statement, the BNB Chain core development team praised the Opbnb community for being instrumental in the L2’s success so far. The team also noted that the community’s efforts can prove to be potentially vital in the development of decentralized applications.
“We recognize the immense potential of our community members to contribute not only to the development of dapps on Opbnb but also to core chain technology innovations. In addition, developers who contribute to Opbnb, will have access to the Most Valuable Builder Program (MVB) in collaboration with Binance Labs and CMC Labs and be eligible to apply for grants and mentorship,” the team said.
As explained in the statement, Opbnb is also aiming to reduce transacting fees from $0.005 to $0.001 in the last quarter of 2023. In the first quarter of 2024, the objective is to increase capacity from 100M to 150M. Between Q2 and Q3 of 2024, the goal is to lower the gas limit per block increase from 100M to 200M and achieve a transaction per second milestone of 10,000.
What are your thoughts on this story? Let us know what you think in the comments section below.
The now-inoperative crypto lending firm Celsius has announced the opening of withdrawals for select “Eligible Custody Users,” as declared in a recent statement on Wednesday. These custody account holders now have the opportunity to withdraw approximately 72% of their cryptocurrency assets, with the deadline set for February 28, 2024.
On Wednesday, Celsius communicated that certain customers have been granted withdrawal rights following court approval of the company’s restructuring plan. The decision comes after Celsius sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on July 13, 2022, a month subsequent to the suspension of withdrawals. Now, “Eligible Custody Users” are permitted to access their funds.
The company's official X page stated, "Beginning today, additional withdrawals for Eligible Custody Users are now available. Please note that the only assets currently available for withdrawal are certain Custody Assets; all other cryptocurrency remains unavailable for withdrawal at this time."
This segment of custody clients originates from two separate groups of claimants, who have until February 28, 2024, to execute their withdrawals. Handling of other clients, including those who opposed Celsius’ restructuring plans, will occur over the forthcoming six months. Participants in the current withdrawal process will receive slightly more than 72% of their crypto assets, according to the docket provided by Stretto, a bankruptcy case filings management company.
As per the latest update on November 24, 2023, on Claims Market, bids for Celsius claims are at $0.38 on the dollar. In comparison, FTX claims in that specific bankruptcy case are fetching $0.57 on the dollar through Claims Market. Furthermore, Celsius has advised its eligible clients on social media to expedite the withdrawal of their cryptocurrency assets before the window of opportunity lapses.
The company emphasized on Wednesday, "We strongly encourage you to withdraw these assets from the Celsius app and take personal records of information you may find useful immediately, as the Celsius app will only be available for a limited time."
What are your thoughts on this story? Let us know what you think in the comments section below.
On Wednesday, Northern Data Group, headquartered in Frankfurt and specializing in bitcoin mining, disclosed that its subsidiary, Taiga Cloud, has secured a significant acquisition of about 8,200 Nvidia H100 Tensor Core Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). These newly acquired units will complement Northern Data’s current collection of artificial intelligence (AI)-oriented hardware, following their previous acquisition of 10,000 Nvidia GPUs in September.
In a continuous stride towards growth in the generative AI sector, Northern Data Group and its subsidiary, Taiga Cloud, announced on November 29 another noteworthy expansion. Taiga Cloud has enhanced its AI infrastructure through the procurement of additional Nvidia-based GPUs.
The expansion includes equipping Taiga Cloud with HPE Cray XD supercomputers, furnished with Nvidia H100 GPU Tensor Core GPUs. This latest acquisition, valued at 330 million euros or equivalently $362 million, was facilitated by Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE). The company had previously acquired 10,000 Nvidia units in September.
"Taiga and HPE share similar beliefs and values, which are aligned to democratizing access to cutting-edge sustainable generative AI technology," Karl Havard the managing director of Taiga Cloud said in a statement. "We understand that AI workloads require purpose-built AI-native architecture where hundreds and even thousands of nodes work together in concert to support a single workload."
The recent announcement highlights Taiga’s ascendancy as a frontrunner among Europe’s generative AI Cloud Service Providers. Taiga’s investment in AI hardware exceeds $800 million, granting them “access to over 18,000 Nvidia H100 Tensor Core GPUs.” Additionally, Taiga revealed its generative AI Cloud’s achievement of 100% carbon neutrality, maintained through energy-efficient Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) ratios below 1.2.
In a parallel development, Northern Data is advancing its bitcoin mining endeavors. Its subsidiary, Peak Mining, has commenced the construction of a 30-megawatt (MW) mining facility in Grand Forks, North Dakota. The project, which began this month, is on track to be operational in the first quarter of 2024. The facility, boasting state-of-the-art direct-to-chip liquid-cooling technology, will utilize Microbt‘s advanced liquid-cooled M53S++ miners.
What do you think about bitcoin mining firms expanding into the AI sector? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
PRESS RELEASE. ZKSpace has recently announced two significant developments: its expansion into the BRC20 ecosystem and the unveiling of its Tokenomics 2.0 Trilogy.
Expansion into the BRC20 Ecosystem:
Tokenomics 2.0 Trilogy:
Conclusion:
These developments by ZKSpace mark a strategic shift towards embracing the BRC20 ecosystem and innovating its tokenomics. The company is set to enhance its product offerings and user experience, while also adding value to its ZKS token holders. Stay tuned for more updates as ZKSpace continues to evolve and expand its presence in the cryptocurrency market.
For more information, visit ZKSpace’s official channels.
Website｜Web APP｜Mobile APP｜Twitter｜Telegram｜Discord | Reddit｜Forum｜Medium｜Mirror｜GitHub
This is a press release. Readers should do their own due diligence before taking any actions related to the promoted company or any of its affiliates or services. Bitcoin.com is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in the press release.
Overview: On the back of lower interest rates, the greenback's
slide was extended in early Asia Pacific turnover, but it has recovered. As
North American trading begins, the dollar is firmer against all the G10
currencies but the New Zealand dollar, which has been aided by the hawkish hold
of the central bank, and an immaterial gain in the Swiss franc. Emerging market
currencies are mixed. Central European currencies and the Mexican peso are
softer. The Chinese yuan reached its best level since June. The greenback's
recover is seeing gold reverse after reaching a near high a little above $2050.
Many of the large equity markets in the Asia Pacific region
fell, including Japan, Hong Kong, China, and South Korea. India's 1% gain leads
the others. Europe's Stoxx 600 is rising for the first time this week. US index
futures are also trading with a firmer bias. Interest rates are softer. The
10-year JGB yield is near 0.66%, having peaking near 0.95%. European benchmark
yields are mostly 4-7 bp lower, though UK Gilts are underperforming. The
10-year US Treasury yield is off 2.5 bp to slightly below 4.30%. The US
two-year yield is down around three basis points to 4.70%. Lastly, January WTI
is extending yesterday's recovery, with the help of an estimated decline in US
inventories. January WTI is trading near a four-day high slightly below $77.50.
Asia Pacific
Australia's October CPI slowed to 4.9% from 5.6%, a sharper
decline that expected. The central
bank meets next Tuesday, and, after this month's hike, it was widely recognized
that it would stand pat. Still, Australia's two-year yield is off nearly 13 bp
today to about 4.10%, the lowest since early October. Separately, the Reserve
Bank of New Zealand delivered a hawkish hold. The cash rate was left at 5.50%,
but its revised projections show a bias toward another hike, and no cut until
mid-2025. The New Zealand dollar initially rallied more than 1% on the news (to
almost $0.6210), but amid broader corrective pressures, unwound most of the
gains, but is still firmer against the US dollar for the fifth consecutive
session.
Tomorrow, China reports November PMI and a small uptick is
expected amid new official efforts to support the economy. More working days in November after the October
holiday also favors an uptick. Better Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong
exports to China may also suggest some traction. On the other hand, the decline
in demand from oil refiners has been a drag on prices. Japan reports October
retail sales and industrial output. Recall that September retail sales were
initially reported as -0.1% but were revised to 0.4%. A similar rise is
expected in October. Industrial output rose 0.5% in September after falling by
0.7% in August and tumbling 1.8% in July. The median forecast in Bloomberg's
survey looks for a 0.8% increase, which would be sufficient to lift the
year-over-year rate back into the black after contracting in Q3. Upticks in
retail sales and industrial production would lend credence to ideas that the
Japanese economy is returning to growth after contracting by 2.1% in Q3.
Lastly, India will report Q3 GDP. India's economy is slowing from the 7.8%
year-over-year pace in Q2 to around 6.5% in Q3. The risk seems to be on the
upside as the industrial sector more than makes up for the slowing of
agriculture.
Pressed by the sharp drop in US interest rates, yesterday
the dollar approached the low set last week near JPY147.15, and follow-through
selling today took it to almost JPY146.65. The
greenback recovered to session highs near JPY147.80 in European
turnover despite the soft US rates. It stalled and may consolidatein North America. The Australian dollar's surge extended
into a fifth session today, reaching $0.6675 before the softer-than-expected
CPI, which helped fuel some profit-taking. It was sold to around $0.6620.
The Aussie has risen in nine of the past 12 sessions and met the (61.8%)
retracement from the $0.6900-high in July found near $0.6665. A break, and
especially a close below, yesterday's low slightly below $0.6600 would be a
cautionary development, warning that this month's rally, from almost $0.6300
may be over. The dollar gapped lower against the Chinese yuan, reaching
nearly CNY7.1175, a five-month low, before recovering to around CNY7.1280. Yesterday's
low was close to CNY7.1345. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at
CNY7.1031 (CNY7.1132 yesterday). The average projection in Bloomberg's survey
was CNY7.1334.
Europe
Germany and Spain reported their figures today. German states reported softer inflation and the
national estimate it due shortly. The EU harmonized measure is expected to fall
for the second consecutive month and bring the year-over-year rate to 2.5% from
3.0%. That would be the lowest since June 2021. Spain's harmonized measure
eased by 0.6%, which pushed the year-over-year rate to 3.2% from 3.5%. The
eurozone aggregate measure is due tomorrow and is expected to fall by 0.2%,
which would see the year-over-year rate ease to 2.7% from 2.9%. The median
forecast in Bloomberg's survey has the core rate falling to 3.9% from 4.2%. It
peaked at 5.7% in March.
While some American economists talk about the immaculate
decline in inflation (without lifting unemployment), it may not be such a
miracle. Europe is experiencing the
same thing. It reports October unemployment tomorrow Despite the tightening of
monetary policy and economic stagnation, unemployment in the eurozone has been
6.4%-6.5% since March. Before Covid struck, the eurozone's unemployment rate
was 7.5%. Germany reports November employment tomorrow and the unemployment
rate has risen to 5.8% this year from 5.5% at the end of last year. Before the
pandemic, Germany's unemployment rate was steady at 5.0%. Separately, Spain
reported October retail sales today (4.5% year-over-year vs. 6.1% in September)
while German figures are due tomorrow. Many economists are looking for the
first increase in five months.
The euro rallied into the European close yesterday and
follow-through buying lifted the single currency to almost $1.1010. Marginal new highs were seen today (slightly above $1.1015)
before reversing lower. It is trading near $1.0970 in European turnover. Below
there, nearby support is in the $1.0940-60 area. Yesterday's low was near
$1.0935. Consistent with the euro's rise, the US two-year premium has fallen by
25 bp this month to mid-September levels. It has steadied today. Sterling
pushed slightly above $1.2730 today and met the (61.8%) retracement of its
decline from the mid-July high before profit-taking hit. Sterling was
sold back to about $1.2675. Support is seen in the $1.2640-60
area. The upper Bollinger Band is around $1.2735 today. The
intraday momentum indicators were oversold as European activity began and
sterling found new bids.
America
The sharp drop in US rates likely contributed to the weak
reception at yesterday's $39 bln sale of seven-year note sales. Although several Fed officials spoke, it was Governor
Waller's comments that seemed to spark the dramatic move lower in US interest
rates, but they pushed on a door that was already open. Waller did not appear
to say anything the market did not already know but he did provide a timeframe
of lower inflation for 4-5 months that could get the Fed to cut, which
dovetailed with what the futures market was discounted. The odds of a hike next
month were near zero before and are a smidgeon closer to it now. The first cut
is now fully discounted for May from almost 58% chance at the close Monday. The
implied yield of the December 2024 Fed funds futures contract is about 4.34%
implying bp almost 100 bp of cuts next year. Based on the current information
set, this seem to be aggressive. Nearly all the Fed officials have commented on
the uncertainty of policy is sufficiently restrictive, and forecasts are for
solid jobs report on December 8 (~175k increase in nonfarm payroll and a 0.3%
increase in average hourly pay). Fed Chair Powell speaks twice on Friday.
The US Treasury is done with new coupon issuance until
December 11 when it returns with three- and 10-year offerings. The data on tap today are not typically market
movers: October inventories and preliminary estimate of US merchandise
trade, and revisions to Q3 GDP. Still, retail inventories are rising at a
faster rate. The median's forecast (Bloomberg) for a 0.6% rise would raise the
three-month moving average to a little more than 0.8% compared with slightly
more than 0.5% in the previous three months. In the year ago period, the
average was around 0.2%. Wholesale inventories were drawn down from March
through August and rose by 0.2% in September and are seen rising by the same in
October. Recall that inventories bolstered Q3 GDP by about 1.3 percentage
points. Net exports contributed almost 2.8 percentage points to Q3 GDP. The
nominal goods balance is expected to be little changed in October from
September $85.8 bln shortfall. The revisions to Q3 GDP are expected to be
minor. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey sees it being lifted to 5.0%
from 4.9%. That brings us to the Fed's Beige Book that is prepared for next
month's FOMC meeting. Look for anecdotal evidence that the economy is
moderating and some easing of the labor market. It may be seen as lending
credence to the prior conviction that the Fed's tightening cycle is over.
Canada's Q3 current account balance is expected to have
posted a small surplus (~CAD1 bln) after four quarters of deficits. In Q3, it recorded a merchandise trade surplus of nearly
CAD2.5 bln. In Q2, the merchandise trade deficit was about CAD7.1 bln. More
market sensitive data is out over the next two days. Tomorrow sees September
and Q3 GDP estimate. A flat September report would be the third consecutive
month it has stagnated. Still, with a little bit of luck, the economy may have
eked out growth of 0.1% in Q3 after a 0.2% contraction in Q2. On Friday, Canada
updates the employment situation for November. Canada created 17.5k jobs in
October but lost full-time positions (3.3k) for the first time since May. Its
unemployment rate has trended higher from 5.0% from December 2022 through April
2023 to 5.7% in October. The participation rate, 65.6% is unchanged since
April.
The greenback's weakness is now proving
sufficient to buoy the Canadian dollar. The Loonie saw its best level since early October. The US dollar fell to
about CAD1.3540 today before recovering to around CAD1.3595 area. A sustained
break of CAD1.3600 is potentially significant from a technical perspective. The
greenback settled below its lower Bollinger Band yesterday (~CAD1.3580). The
intraday momentum indicators are stretched by the greenback's recover. Banxico
issues its inflation report today and it is possible the Deputy Governor Heath
let the proverbial cat of out of the bag by recently suggesting that a rate cut
could be delivered in Q1 24. On Monday, the US dollar made a low near
MXN17.0350, but outside of this exception, it remains within the range set on
November 21: ~MXN17.0660-MXN17.2690. The peso is the best performing Latam
currency this month (~5.2%), but among emerging markets, excluding Russa,
Poland leads (~6.40%), followed by Czech and Hungary (~5.0%).
