BOJ October meeting 'summary': FXlevels are determined by fundamentals

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BOJ October meeting 'summary': FXlevels are determined by fundamentals

<p>From the Bank of Japan, their Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on October 27 and 28, 2022</p><p>(<a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/opinion_2022/opi221028.pdf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Full text is here</a>)</p><p>Headlines via Reuters:</p><ul><li>Japan's consumer inflation is likely to accelerate as firms pass on higher costs</li></ul><ul><li> Japan's inflation likely to remain fairly high as there are signs service prices starting to rise</li><li>Consumer inflation likely to slow back below 2% next fiscal year due to impact of slowing global growth</li><li>Companies maybe shifting away from their business practices that were based on the assumption prices won't rise much</li><li>Cannot rule out chance prices will sharply overshoot forecasts</li><li>Sustained, steady wage gains crucial for japan to achieve boj's price target</li><li>Inflation may overshoot expectations but not fully convinced such price rises would be sustainable</li><li>There are signs effect of boj's monetary easing heightening as long-term inflation expectations heighten moderately, push down real interest rates</li><li>Rise in nominal wages crucial to stably achieve boj's 2% price target</li><li>Must be vigilant to impact of tightening of global financial conditions</li><li>Forex levels are determined by fundamentals</li></ul><p>I pointed out at the time of the meeting (only a couple of weeks ago) that there was a change in tone from the Bank of Japan on their inflation comments. I also said a change in policy is not imminent, but there are signs one is coming. A loosening of yield curve control is likely to be a first step. The question is one of timing. Maybe we have to wait until Kuroda's term finished in March next year. </p><p>USD/JPY update (weekly candles):</p><p>---</p><p>Separately, from Japan's MoF daily intervention data for the July to September quarter, says no stealth intervention was conducted. Yeah, right ... this is July to September , not since. October may be a different story. </p><p><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/terms/j/jpy/" target="_blank" id="9ad55131-b07a-4ccb-b844-eed2194cf434_2" class="terms__main-term">JPY</a></p>

                This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at forexlive.com.

Source: BOJ October meeting 'summary': FXlevels are determined by fundamentals

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